Arsenal are given a major chance of lifting the trophy
Tottenham sit two places above Arsenal in the Premier League table, having played a game less.
They also won the most recent meeting between the two sides, with Jose Mourinho’s men securing a 2-0 victory in December.
Despite that, it’s the Gunners who have been given a greater chance of Europa League success by high-profile data analysts FiveThirtyEight.
The American analysis company was created by influential statistician Nate Silver, and their latest ‘Club Soccer Predictions’ give Mikel Arteta’s side a significant chance of attaining glory in Europe this season.
They make Arsenal second-favourites for the trophy, with a 14% chance of victory. That’s three places above Spurs, who are on 10%.
The overwhelming favourites are Manchester United, with Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s side given a 23% of winning the tournament.
Arsenal are expected to see off Olympiakos in the next round, with a 69% chance of progression. From there, it’s 43% to make it to the semi-finals and 26% to reach the final.
Tottenham, meanwhile, are also given a 69% chance of winning their round of 16 tie against Dinamo Zagreb. After that, it’s 39% to win their quarter-final and 21% to make the final.
Domestically, a less rosy picture is painted. With Tottenham and Arsenal in eighth and tenth respectively, neither side is given much hope of securing a spot in the top four.
Arteta’s team are given a 5% chance of qualifying for the Champions League, and for Mourinho’s side it’s 13%.
West Ham are currently be sitting fourth in the Premier League behind Manchester City, Manchester United and Leicester, but they sit sixth in the FiveThirtyEight list with a 25% chance of finishing in the Champions League spots.
They predict the top four will be City in first, United second, Liverpool third and Leicester fourth.
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