Elena Rybakina has made her way back to the Australian Open final after coming through a tough contest against Jessica Pegula.
Her reward is a rematch with Aryna Sabalenka, which promises to be every bit as compelling as their 2023 encounter. The first meeting was considered one of the sport’s more memorable finals in recent years, so the expectations are high once again.
The two players stand out for their power, and given how this tournament has lacked a bit of spark, this could be the final that turns things around. Even if it doesn’t live up to last year’s standards, it should still offer plenty of intrigue.
Plenty of people have had their say on who will come out on top and why. Eurosport expert Barbara Schett believes Rybakina is the one to watch because she appears calmer and better prepared mentally for what’s ahead.
Why Rybakina may have the upper hand against Sabalenka in the final
Speaking live on TNT Sports after Rybakina’s victory over Pegula, Coco Vandeweghe highlighted what makes the Kazakhstani star such a difficult opponent.
While she acknowledged that Sabalenka moves more freely around the court, Vandeweghe believes Rybakina’s strengths in other areas could give her a slight edge.
Vandeweghe said: “I think Rybakina’s movement is really limited in comparison to Sabalenka. I think Sabalenka moves a bit freer around the court. My question is, when we get into that match-up, the backhand-to-backhand scenario. I think Rybakina has the advantage in that one.
“It’s whether or not, when Sabalenka is faced with that question of I’m not winning the rallies on the backhand, do I start pulling the trigger line too early and risk more errors?
“I think that’s something she needs to be able to monitor and watch because it’s hard to get to the Rybakina forehand enough times if you can’t sustain the backhand crosscourt rally.”
Sabalenka comes into this final with more experience at this stage than Rybakina – something that could prove important. But based on form alone, it feels like we’re set for another close contest between two players who know each other well.
Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka’s history against each other
This will be the 15th time the two have met, but only the second in a Grand Slam final.
Of course, most will remember their meeting at the 2023 Australian Open, where Sabalenka edged a tight contest.
But more recent history favours Rybakina, who won their last encounter in the WTA Finals.
She’s also been strong against top-ten players lately, with nine straight wins over opponents ranked inside that group.
Sabalenka still holds a slight edge overall though, leading their head-to-head record 8-6.
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