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Why two World Cup nations will actively want to lose last group game due to FIFA rule change

Photo by Paul ELLIS / AFP via Getty Images
Photo by Paul ELLIS / AFP via Getty Images
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There could be a strange atmosphere when Algeria play Austria in the FIFA World Cup 2026 on Sunday. 

The two meet in Kansas City for their final game in Group J, but both teams might actually prefer to lose it.

Head-to-head record is now the deciding factor in the group stages, not goal difference. What's your take on the rule change?

Goal difference had been used since 1970…

The advent of a 48-team World Cup means that eight of the best third-placed teams progress through the group stage.

With Argentina already through and Jordan eliminated, it’s very likely that both Austria and Algeria will progress into the round of 32.

However, any winner from Sunday’s game might actually face a more difficult game in the third round.

Winner of Algeria vs Austria could face Spain

That’s because whoever finishes second in Group J is set to meet the winner of Group H.

As it stands, that will be Spain, one of the favorites for the tournament as a whole.

It’s difficult to imagine any team wanting to play the European champions unless they absolutely have to, which means actually finishing third in the group could provide an easier route as the knockout stages begin.

Nabil Bentaleb #19 of Algeria celebrates after the team's second goal by Amine Gouiri #9 during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group J match between Jordan and Algeria.
Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images

If a team who finish third in Group J progress as one of the best third-placed teams, they will face another group winner.

Clearly, that won’t be easy, although not many teams carry the threat that Spain do.

This situation is exactly why FIFA’s expansion to a 48-team World Cup has been criticized so heavily. 

The fact that so many teams who finish third qualify has stopped some of the jeopardy in the tournament, with all other previous editions seeing only the top two in each group progress.

Some have called for FIFA to further expand to 64-team World Cup in future editions. Though that might dilute the quality, it would help avoid so many dead rubbers being played during the final group games.

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