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Why Scottie Scheffler is likely to win at Pebble Beach this week, according to history

Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
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Backing Scottie Scheffler to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week isn’t exactly going out on a limb.

Scheffler enters the tournament as world number one, a spot he’s held for 143 straight weeks now.

Last week in Phoenix, he made his presence felt again. Even without his best game, he finished tied for third at the WM Phoenix Open.

What sets Scheffler apart is his ability to compete, and even win when things aren’t clicking for him. He’s managed 20 PGA Tour wins in his last 82 starts and has four major championships under his belt. He’s also put together a streak of 17 consecutive top-10 finishes.

It’s not hard to see why some have started comparing him to Tiger Woods. In fact, Woods never put together a top-10 streak quite like what Scheffler is on right now.

A 21st PGA Tour victory this week at Pebble Beach wouldn’t surprise anyone who’s been paying attention.

Scottie Scheffler looks to add to PGA Tour tally at Pebble Beach

Scottie Scheffler of the United States plays his tee shot on the 13th hole during the final round of the Hero World Challenge 2025 at Albany Golf Course.
Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images

Scottie Scheffler already has a win under his belt this season, and it came early.

The defending Masters champion looked comfortable as he took apart the field at the American Express in La Quinta, California. That kind of early-season form would have caught the attention of everyone on tour.

He started slowly at the WM Phoenix Open, opening with a two-over-par 73. But rounds of 65, 67 and 64 saw him climb back into contention, finishing just one shot behind Chris Gotterup and Hideki Matsuyama.

This week, he heads to Pebble Beach looking to make it two wins from his first three starts of the year. And given his ball-striking ability and control with irons, it’s not hard to see why he’s among the favourites again.

Pebble Beach is a course that seems tailor-made for his game — yet he hasn’t won there before.

Even so, recent form suggests that could change very soon. Everything lines up for another strong showing from the world number one.

History suggests Scheffler is due a win at Pebble Beach

Scheffler’s last eight results on the PGA Tour have not only been incredibly impressive, but they’ve been wonderfully symmetrical as well.

Since July, starting at The Open Championship, Scheffler hasn’t finished outside the top four in eight consecutive events.

His finishes over that stretch read: Win, T-3, Win, T-4, Win, T-4, Win, T-3. The pattern is clear and obvious to see. The list of his recent results reads like a ‘guess the number’ brainteaser!

Some people believe Scheffler’s form over the past two years simply isn’t sustainable.

But those who make that argument may not fully realise just how remarkable this run has been.

This level of sustained excellence brings to mind Tiger Woods in his prime more than two decades ago.

If Scheffler does win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week, it won’t come as a shock to anyone following the sport closely. His track record suggests he often backs up top-five finishes with wins.