Will the Arsenal captain or Manchester United’s former hero take the golden boot? Or will there be a surprise winner?
If David Villa was not injured, the Spaniard would be the clear favourite to take the Euro 2012 golden boot, after winning it in 2008.
His absence opens the way for a new winner, unless Milan Baros makes a remarkable return to the form which saw the Czech striker become a surprise winner in 2004.
Here are the top 10 candidates according to the bookies:
Robin van Persie – Holland – 9/1 ; Mario Gomez – Germany – 9/1 ; Karim Benzema – France – 12/1 ; Cristiano Ronaldo – Portugal – 14/1 ; Fernando Torres – Spain – 16/1 ; Fernando Llorente – Spain – 16/1 ; Jan Klaas Huntelaar – Holland – 18/1 ; Miroslav Klose – Germany – 18/1 ; Robert Lewandowski – Poland – 20/1 ; Thomas Muller – Germany – 18/1.
Between the 10 of them, they are full of goals. Van Persie bagged 36 for Arsenal last season, Gomez 40 for Bayern Munich, while Cristiano Ronaldo bagged an incredible 60 for Real Madrid.
Benzema struck 32 times for Madrid himself, while Robert Lewandowski scored 30 for Dortmund. Huntelaar was another who had an outstanding season, scoring 37 for Schalke.
The odd ones out in the bookies top 10 are Fernando Torres, who scored eight for Chelsea and whose troubles we know all about, and Miroslav Klose (13) and Thomas Muller (10). However the German duo have the pedigree, Klose was top scorer at the 2002 World Cup, and Muller the surprise Golden Boot winner in South Africa at 2010.
Muller showed two years ago that it is not always the favourites who wins the individual honour; going into the tournament with odds as long as 66/1 to his name.
Take Part In Our Euro 2012 Predictor Competition – Free Entry, £4,000 Prize Fund
With some evenly contested groups, unlike the World Cup there are few chances for teams to thrash the opposition, as Germany did in 2002 beating Saudi Arabia 8-0, allowing the players to feast on goals.
Poland’s Robert Lewandowski – coming off a fine season and featuring in the relatively weak Group A, facing Russia, Greece and the Czech Republic, represents good value considering the three factors of form, opposition, and being first choice. As the host nation, Poland will also have the crowd as the 12th man spurring them on.
However scepticism over Poland’s chances of progressing as far as the semi-finals will hinder his chances, compared with Spain’s Llorente who will expect to feature in the latter stages. That token makes Benzema of France a top bet- Ukraine and Sweden’s defences are not the best, and let’s face it neither is England’s.
How Holland line up, could affect the chances of Huntelaar if he starts on the bench behind van Persie, similar Torres who will likely play second fiddle to Llorente for Spain. All of these factors must be taken into account.
So how do England’s star players fare with the bookmakers? Wayne Rooney – despite being banned for the first two matches – is joint favourite at 40/1, sharing the honour with Andy Carroll. A brave bet if ever we saw one. Danny Welbeck is 50/1, the same odds as Zlatan Ibrahmiovic and Spain’s Pedro, with Jermain Defoe down at 80/1.
Nikica Jelavic of Croatia is a dark horse at 40/1, and the unpredictable Mario Balotelli is 33/1. Another outside is Russia’s Pogrebnyak at 66/1, while if you fancy Baros to repeat his Euro 2004 feats he is 80/1. As for the real outsiders, Nicklas Bendtner is 100/1 and Ireland’s Kevin Doyle 125/1.
We should really shine a spotlight on Cristiano Ronaldo bearing in mind his stunning 60 goals for Madrid this season just gone. Despite his club heroics, he has not produced the same form on the international stage, and you have to go back to his semi-final goal in 2004 to really find his last important goal in a major tournament for his country.
Now 27 and at his peak, he has no excuses, despite Portugal’s tough group with Holland and Germany, all eyes will be on him to produce, and if he gets it right his 14/1 is good value.
It is often difficult to predict, hence the long odds on talented players, but whoever comes out with the Golden Boot will have their reputation enhanced and millions added to their price tag.
Who are you tipping to win the Golden Boot at Euro 2012?
image: © jbagley
Receive exclusive football transfer news and updates twice a week to your mailbox
