Supercomputer predicts which teams will secure Champions League football after Premier League secures fifth European spot

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The Premier League has secured the fifth qualification spot for next season’s Champions League.

Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Real Madrid on Tuesday night has secured the Premier League’s extra berth in Europe’s elite competition.

The result breathes new life into the campaigns of teams on the fringes of the top four. A minimum of five teams will qualify but six or seven is possible if one of Spurs or United win the Europa League and Aston Villa go all the way in the Champions League.

Regardless of outcomes in Europe, the extra spot widens the race for qualification to the top five.

Opta predict Premier League top five

The Opta Supercomputer has predicted the top five to qualify for next season’s competition.

Arsenal—and of course Liverpool— have enough of a gap to feel comfortable, but after that, the predictions become far less certain. Places 3rd to 7th in the league table are separated by just six points, leaving plenty of room for movement in the final seven weeks of the season.

Though Chelsea sit in 4th in the league standings, Man City’s bit of credit in the bank when it comes to projecting performance pushes them up and gives them the fourth-best odds to qualify, followed by Newcastle, whose red-hot form and extra game push them into fifth.

Villa have entered the race almost out of nowhere—spurred on by their additions in the winter window—picking up all three points in four of their last five outings.

Fulham, Bournemouth, Palace and Brighton are also close enough to have a fractional chance based on the Opta predictions.

Though the title race and relegation battle are all but decided, the fierce competition in the upper-middle class of the Premier League makes this run-in a scintillating proposition. All the clubs mentioned will be eager to make it to next season’s Champions League, not only for the prestige but also for the payout.

Premier League clubs set for European cash injection

The new Champions League format was fascinating to watch, even if the seeding ended up having little bearing on the difficulty of the draw. But there is a bonus for clubs, as prize money has increased by a third from last season.

Each qualifier bags an initial £15.7m, then an additional £1.8m for a win and £590,000 for a draw in the league phase. As teams progress, rewards increase:

• Winning the Round of 16 earns a club £9.4m,
• then £10.7m for the Quarter-finals,
• £12.9m for the Semi-finals, £15.9m for the Runner-up and a
• £21.5m reward for winning the tournament. 

This extra injection of cash may ease the pain of extra fixtures and allow for improved squad depth to handle the workload.