Statistic proves Hull City need to drop David Marshall for Eldin Jakupovic

Follow us on Google Discover

The Tigers are yet to earn their stripes back in the top flight, with their goalkeeping problems just the tip of the iceberg.

With Cardiff City tumbling out of the Premier League in disarray in 2014, even David Marshall’s succession of miracle saves could not prevent the inevitable.

Making more stops than any other top flight goalkeeper, many of them spectacular too, it’s testament to the Bluebirds’ overworked shot-stopper that then-boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s claims that Marshall was the top flight’s finest net-guarder didn’t seem too ridiculous at the time. In fact, he was only narrowly pipped to the PFA Team of the Year by the ever-consistent Petr Cech, then in Chelsea blue.

Yet, in his second stab at the big time, Marshall has devolved from Christopher Reeve’s Superman to a poor and blundering imposter. Those virtuoso performances between the sticks for Cardiff have been replaced by spilled shots and poor positioning, with his new fans at Hull City demanding his removal from the starting XI.

A case in point; according to Opta, as recorded by Sky Sports, Marshall has the worst record of all top flight goalkeepers in regards to saving presentable chances.

Opta’s model charts every shot taken in the Premier League and ranks the likelihood of it resulting in a goal based on certain factors, such as the angle and distance, to calculate how many times one team should reasonably be expected to score past another during a game.

Therefore, comparing the predicted total with the actual number conceded means us proud footballing anoraks can discover which ‘keepers are producing crucial stops and which ‘keepers are, well let’s just say, conceding more than they should.

And, using Opta’s data, opposition players should have been reasonably expected to score past Marshall on 14 occasions this term. Instead, the Scotland international has conceded 22 times, his performance in Hull’s dire 3-0 defeat at Sunderland a particular lowlight.

Consequently, fans have clamoured for the reintroduction of popular shot-stopper Eldin Jakupovic, who saved two Newcastle United penalties in their EFL Cup quarter-final shootout win last week, and the stats suggest they have a point. The Swiss ‘keeper has made the fourth highest number of improbable saves (i.e. from chances you’d expect the opposition to score) in the top flight this season.

For added context, Jakupovic has conceded just seven times in five Premier League games, four of which were thumped past him by Alexis Sanchez’s Arsenal. Marshall? 22 in nine. Now, statistics don’t tell you everything but, in this case, they paint a pretty accurate picture.