The US Open is typically the most brutal challenge on the golfing calendar.
The USGA has built the identity of the US Open as the most difficult test of golf imaginable, and that was clear at last year’s event at Oakmont Country Club. JJ Spaun was the only player to finish under par.
And judging by the last time the US Open was played at Shinnecock Hills, this year might not be any different. Brooks Koepka won in 2018 with a final score of one over par.
But Rory McIlroy, already looking ahead to the penultimate major of the year, said this time around we should see some lower scores at Shinnecock.
Why Rory McIlroy is expecting a lower-scoring US Open
Shinnecock Hills is a very different test from many American golf courses. It has a near-Open Championship links feel, with the wind blowing, making par hard to hold.
That’s what caused scoring to be so high in 2018, but McIlroy thinks that the wind won’t affect play so much this year. That’s why he thinks a lower score will win the 2026 US Open.
Speaking to Fried Egg Golf, he explained, “I think Shinnecock is very wind-dependent. I think that first day at Shinnecock in 2018, I remember every tee shot when it was that left-to-right wind, I could not start the ball far enough left. I kept missing it in the right rough.
“I think you will see a slightly gentler Shinnecock this time around, because the USGA don’t want to lose it. Obviously, the club and the membership don’t want to lose it either.
“I would expect the winning score to be a little more in the red numbers than not, but it’s an amazing golf course because the playing corridors are wide with wide fairways, the greens are pretty small, they can tuck the pins away and you do have to think about angles.
“I think about the eighth hole which is a really short par four but if you have the pin on the right side of the green and you hit it up the right side of the fairway it’s not a nice wedge shot, but if you hit it up the left side, you are hitting straight up the grain and it becomes easier, not just from a landing stand point but visually.
“There are a lot of things like that at Shinnecock that you have to think about. Also, the greens are an incredible set of greens, but if you get them too fast, they become silly, so the tournament setup guys have to be careful of how fast they get them and where they are putting hole locations.”
Why the USGA are worried about ‘losing’ Shinnecock
Shinnecock Hills is a key part of the US Open’s fabric, but the last two times the tournament has visited the course, things have gotten out of hand.
The USGA famously lost the golf course on Sunday in 2004. The seventh green dried out so badly that balls wouldn’t stop, forcing maintenance crews to literally water the greens between groups while a major championship was actively being played.
That wasn’t necessarily reflected in the scoring, as Retief Goosen won the event at four under, but there was an unfortunate repeat of these events in 2018, which did affect the leaderboard.
During Saturday’s third round in 2018, late afternoon winds baked out the course, rendering well-executed shots unplayable and sending scores soaring into the 80s. The conditions were so poor that the USGA issued an apology afterward.
While the USGA wants this event to be tough, they don’t want it to become a farce, so expect this year to be slightly easier for the players than in previous events at Shinnecock.
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