Mercedes F1 CEO and team principal Toto Wolff may have just signalled a change in direction for the 2026 season, and it could come at the worst possible moment for Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.
The Silver Arrows have been keeping tabs on the 27-year-old for a while now, as Wolff considers who should take charge when the new regulations come into play. With both George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli out of contract at the end of this year, Mercedes still haven’t settled on their line-up.
Wolff has been keen to pair Verstappen with Antonelli if he could get him out of his Red Bull deal. That contract runs until 2028, but there’s an exit clause that lets Verstappen leave if he falls outside the top three in the standings by this summer.
Russell currently sits fourth in the drivers’ standings, trailing Verstappen by 19 points with 58 still up for grabs before the summer break. But despite that gap, Wolff doesn’t seem to be prioritising a move for Verstappen anymore.
Red Bull looking to take Honda’s approach with 2026 F1 engine development
Wolff says Mercedes’ main focus is on securing new deals for Russell and Antonelli, and while Verstappen was considered, a move now looks unlikely. The four-time champion is instead expected to remain with Red Bull under new team principal Laurent Mekies.
Verstappen’s manager Raymond Vermeulen has said that the decision to let Christian Horner go won’t play into his client’s plans. Instead, Verstappen will base his decision entirely on which team offers the best package for the start of Formula 1’s next era.
It might not be what Verstappen wants to hear, then, that according to RACER, Red Bull are planning a similar approach for their entry into the new regulations as Honda took when they returned in 2015 – focusing on gradual improvement rather than immediate results.
This marks Red Bull’s first attempt at building their own power unit. The project began after Horner set up an in-house engine division following Honda’s initial withdrawal from F1 in October 2020. Though Honda later reversed its decision and stayed in the sport due to the rule changes coming in 2026, it will supply engines for Aston Martin instead.
Honda did make progress over time though. By the end of the decade, they had helped Max Verstappen win four consecutive titles – a run that also delivered six Constructors’ Championships for Red Bull.
Honda’s engine didn’t reach the podium until 2019, four years after returning to F1
McLaren managed just 27 points in their first year back with Honda power in 2015, finishing ninth in the constructors’ standings, ahead of only Marussia. They followed that up with a sixth-place finish and 76 points in 2016, then dropped back to ninth again with just 30 points in 2017 before switching from Honda to Renault.
It wasn’t until 2019 that a Honda-powered car made it onto the podium. That year, Red Bull finished third in the championship with 417 points. Now, Red Bull are aiming for a similar path of gradual improvement as they prepare their own power unit for the new regulations.
Red Bull’s outlook for early 2026 won’t do much to reassure Verstappen as he weighs up his options. He already believes Mercedes will have the edge under the new rules, but Wolff seems to have ruled out any move to Brackley.
Staying at Red Bull may not put Verstappen in a race-winning car come 2026. His concerns weren’t helped earlier this year when Ford Performance global director Mark Rushbrook admitted there could be reliability issues with Red Bull’s upcoming engine.
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