Paul McGinley believes that superb iron play is likely to be crucial at The Open Championship, with Collin Morikawa backed to challenge Scottie Scheffler for the Claret Jug.
We are hours away from the opening tee shot being hit at the final major of the year. Much has been said about the condition of Royal Birkdale in recent days, with the United Kingdom currently dealing with a heatwave.
Which Brit will finish highest at The Open Championship?
Will a home favourite triumph at Royal Birkdale?
Conditions are likely to be drastically different from last year at Royal Portrush. Nevertheless, Paul McGinley thinks that the defending champion is well-placed to retain his crown in Southport.
Paul McGinley tips Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa to contend at The Open Championship
It has been a frustrating year for Scottie Scheffler, with the world number one failing to hit the same heights as the previous three seasons. He is still awaiting a second victory of 2026 after winning The American Express on his first start.
There has also been plenty of frustration for Collin Morikawa this year, albeit for different reasons.
It did appear that he was getting back to his very best as he won at Pebble Beach. However, just as he seemed to be a favourite to win The Players Championship, Morikawa sustained a back injury that has gone on to affect him for several months.
Morikawa was superb on Sunday at the Travelers Championship to just miss out on the playoff involving Scheffler and Viktor Hovland.
And speaking on Sky Sports, McGinley suggested that Morikawa’s sublime iron play makes him a real threat.
He initially spoke about the reasons for Scheffler struggling to put a run of wins together throughout the season.
“The bar the last two years was incredibly high, particularly for his iron play. I mean, it was off the scale high. Now he’s come back, he’s still the 13th best iron player in the game. And he’s still the best driver in the game in terms of accuracy and straightness. So what we’re looking at is a bar that is so high, and he’s moderated it a little bit. His consistency is phenomenal, his heart, his mind is phenomenal. His putting has improved a lot, dramatically from what it was five years ago. So everything is there for him. It’s just the golfing gods haven’t given him a big week in these majors yet,” he said.
“Remember, what was he, nine shots behind Rory after 36 holes at The Masters and only lost by a shot. So he’s getting off to slow starts. But these are the kind of conditions, the cream rises to the top, with the quality player that he is, with how strategic he is, with how patient he is, and now with the benefit of better putting than he’s had before, you would expect him to be in contention.
“I’m looking at the really good iron players in particular coming to the top here. And there’s nobody better than Scottie right through the bag, consistency levels. The bar has been so high the last few years. He’s still having a phenomenal year.
“He comes to mind,” he added, when asked to pick a potential winner. “I really do think the top guys, Morikawa’s another one, a brilliant iron player. This is not going to be so much about driving, because everybody can hit the ball a long way. With the bounce in the fairways, they’re hitting it up to 400 yards and past 400 yards downwind. There’s going to be a lot of holes where they won’t be hitting driver. It’s going to be more about controlling the irons and threading between those fairway bunkers, and then trying to get good spin on the ball coming from the fairway to control it on these very firm greens.
“And then you’re going to miss greens. Even the best players will only be averaging 12, 13 greens a round, so you’ve got to get it up and down. So I am looking at all the best iron players in particular, and I certainly think of Scheffler and I certainly think of Morikawa in that regard.”
Collin Morikawa has arguably not been better since his second major victory
There have been comparisons made between the weather conditions at Birkdale this week and those at Royal St George’s back in 2021 when Morikawa did win the Claret Jug.
It may be a concern to some that Morikawa has not finished inside the top 10 at The Open Championship since that year.
But his game suffered in the years after his second major victory. It has only been in the last 12 months that he has begun to re-establish himself as an elite talent.
He is back doing what he does best with his irons. And his results throughout the season are so impressive when you consider that he has not been fully fit.
Thursday’s opening round should provide a much clearer indication of what kind of player is likely to thrive at Birkdale.
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