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Opta Supercomputer predicts World Cup semi-finals and final, favourite given 34% chance of winning

Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
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The World Cup 2026 is now down to just four teams, and Opta’s supercomputer has predicted which nation is most likely to be the next world champion.

Spain take on France in the first semi-final on Tuesday, before England renews their long-standing rivalry with Argentina.

The four remaining nations are all ranked in the top four spots in the FIFA world rankings, which is the first time this has ever happened.

Ahead of the two mouthwatering ties, it has been revealed which two teams are most likely to reach the final and which side is most likely to lift the trophy this Sunday.

Argentina's head coach Lionel Scaloni gives instructions to Argentina's forward #10 Lionel Messi during the last minutes of the 2026 World Cup football tournament quarter-final match between Argentina and Switzerland at the Kansas City Stadium
Photo by Odd ANDERSEN / AFP via Getty Images

France backed to win the 2026 World Cup

Opta’s supercomputer has named France as the favourites to win the 2026 World Cup with a 34 per cent chance.

The two-time world champions have looked unstoppable so far this tournament, led by the tournament’s leading goal scorer, Kylian Mbappe.

Didier Deschamps’ team have a frightening attack, with Michael Olise, Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele.

Spain are ranked in second place with a 24 per cent chance; however, they must overcome France to get to the final.

England are just behind them with a 23 per cent chance, and the reigning champions are fourth with a 20 per cent chance.

The Three Lions’ clash with Argentina looks to be the most finely poised, with Thomas Tuchel’s side being given a 53 per cent chance of reaching the final.