West Ham United could end up sending Tottenham down while staying up themselves, and Opta’s supercomputer has given more weight to that possibility this week.
After West Ham’s 5-2 loss to Liverpool, Opta’s Supercomputer gave them just a 29.52% chance of avoiding the drop.
Tottenham were in much better shape at that point, with a 95.5% chance of survival, according to the same predictions – even with their season already falling apart.
Since then, West Ham’s 1-0 win over Fulham and Tottenham’s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace have shifted the outlook. Opta’s updated projections now give West Ham a stronger chance of survival and have raised new doubts about Spurs’ hopes of staying up.
Opta’s survival chances for West Ham have improved, while Spurs’ relegation risk has jumped
Opta now puts their survival chances at 49.53% over the final ten matches of the season, up from just under 30% a week ago.
Meanwhile, Spurs’ relegation probability has climbed from 4.5% to 16.18%, reflecting their poor run of form and growing pressure on Ange Postecoglou.
Nottingham Forest, sitting between the two London clubs in 17th place, have their own worries. They are level on points with West Ham but lead on goal difference and trail Spurs by just one point.
Their chances of going down are currently estimated at 26.88%.
West Ham face the toughest schedule remaining but appear to have momentum on their side. Over the last ten games, they’ve collected four wins, four losses and two draws—a notable turnaround from earlier struggles.
If you looked only at results over the past ten games, West Ham would sit ninth in the form table. While that doesn’t change their current position, it does highlight an upward trend.
Spurs would be bottom over that span while Forest would be hovering above the drop zone in 17th place.
The difference in recent performances suggests there is real hope for West Ham to pull clear of danger—and perhaps even drag Tottenham further into it.
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