Naomi Osaka’s return to the top level of tennis hasn’t gone as smoothly as she’d hoped, and her latest setback at the Berlin Tennis Open is just the latest reminder.
The four-time Grand Slam champion and former world number one is still searching for consistency since coming back from maternity leave, and recent results have been a stark reminder of how far the gap has grown.
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Her first-round exit to Paula Badosa at Roland Garros had already raised some concern. Now, another early loss, this time to Liudmila Samsonova on grass, adds to the sense that something still isn’t clicking.
Osaka’s struggles in tight matches starting to pile up
Osaka showed flashes of her old self by taking the first set against world number 20 Samsonova, but the match slipped away, 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-4. It’s become an all-too-familiar pattern: she has now lost her last three matches that went the distance, and all five of her most recent defeats have come in deciding sets.
The numbers paint a mixed picture. Osaka has won 68% of her matches in 2025 with an overall record of 17-8, but when matches go to three sets, her win rate dips slightly to 64% (9-5). More telling is the quality of opposition in those battles. The average ranking of players she’s beaten in three sets is 75.8, while those who have edged her out hold a much higher average ranking of 27.6.
This season hasn’t been without positives. She captured her first clay-court title earlier this year, showing she still has the level to compete. But the mental edge, the belief she once had in tight matches against the best, hasn’t fully returned.
That’s a big change from the Osaka who once thrived under pressure. She won all four Grand Slam finals she played in, including a memorable comeback over Victoria Azarenka at the 2020 US Open.
After her Roland Garros loss, Osaka admitted she was struggling with self-belief. This latest defeat won’t quiet those doubts, but there’s another way to see it: she’s still pushing top players deep into matches — and that might be a sign she’s not far off.
What’s next and can Osaka turn things around by Wimbledon?
Osaka isn’t scheduled to play any more grass-court events before Wimbledon. That means her preparation for the year’s third Grand Slam will come down to practice courts, not match play — a potential worry given her need for more reps at this stage.
Her history at Wimbledon hasn’t been kind. She’s never been past the third round in four main-draw appearances, and last year she fell in the second round to Emma Navarro.
To be fair, some of those losses came against elite competition. In 2017 and 2018, she lost to Venus Williams and Angelique Kerber, both of whom went on to reach the final.
Ranked 57th in the world, Osaka won’t be seeded at this year’s Wimbledon. That means she could draw a top player like Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff in the opening round.
The draw takes place on Friday, June 27. No matter who she faces, Osaka will need to rediscover the toughness that once made her a champion if she’s to make a deep run at SW19.
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