Tens of thousands of simulations proved no use for banks trying to predict the outcome of the World Cup -- with one exception.
Bloomberg News reports that Nomura was the only one of six financial institutions that correctly guessed France would lift the trophy at the Luzhniki Stadium Sunday in Moscow. And none of the banks got more than one right when predicting the top four teams in a tournament marked by underdog wins and early exits for top-seeded nations.
Nomura, which had expected Brazil and Spain to also make it to the semi-finals, said it made predictions based on the value of players in each team, momentum of team performance and historical achievements. The inexperience of Didier Deschamps’s players was offset by a relatively easy group, low volatility in players’ values and the fact that the roster was the most expensive in the tournament, according the bank.
Brazil-Germany was by far the most common guess for the final game. Itau Unibanco, Brazil’s largest bank by market value, and Goldman Sachs bet the South American nation would get its revenge for the traumatic 7-1 loss in 2014. Commerzbank and UBS, meanwhile, said the Germans would bring the trophy home for the second time in a row.
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