Corbyn, May and Trump: 7 major political predictions

What could happen over the next five years in politics in the UK and further afield?

As my time at HITC comes to an end, and I move on to new challenges, I’ve take the time to compile a list of seven predictions for the next few years. Predicting politics is a fool’s game. In 2016, I was confident of a win for Hillary Clinton and a vote for remain. However, I did also predicted that there would be a hung parliament at last year’s general election. UKIP were collapsing, and the election was becoming a two-horse race, something that created an environment of either being for or against the Conservatives. In the end - for that election at least - I was right.

With that in mind, here are my predictions (bare in mind that most will probably not come true):

1. There will be an early election

2022 is agonisingly far away. Labour will need to keep challenging the government until it breaks. An election is unlikely to take place before the UK exits the union but be prepared for a vote in 2019 (depending on the new Tory leader) or possibly in 2020 or 2021 after the Brexit transition deal.

Furthermore, a number of by-election losses for the Conservatives could put them on the back-foot and cause them to lose their majority with the DUP sooner than 2022.

2. A Tory leadership challenge in 2019

Theresa May wants to go on and on, but following her disastrous election last year, the walls are closing in on the prime minister. There are likely several eager cabinet members – and Jacob Rees-Mogg – wanting to go for the Tory crown. But now is not the time. The perfect time to strike will be after the UK leaves the EU and transition arrangements are in place. Spring 2019, anyone?

3. There will be no second referendum and the UK will leave the EU

There is a major movement in favour of keeping the UK inside the union, but with one year to go until the UK makes a Brexit, the chances of a vote remain unlikely. That’s not to say that a referendum to re-join won’t be held in the next decade, but time has run out for remainers holding onto their European dream.

4. Labour will win the next UK General Election

The nature of this win is up for grabs. A Labour minority government supported by the SNP, the Liberal Democrats and/or the Greens is a possibility, as is a majority government. Much will depend on who the Tories pick to replace Theresa May, but Labour are the closest to power they have been since 2010.

5. Donald Trump will win the next US Presidential Election

Intuition, common-sense and statistics tell me that Donald Trump will not win in 2020. In fact, the Republicans could even replace him on the ticket.

However, this all indicates that Donald Trump is likely to win as he is a man who constantly defies expectations. And logically, if the “wall” is built, if growth continues and if the Democrats remain divided, he has a realistic shot of winning once again.

Besides, if he does win, it can be said that I predicted it correctly.

6. Vladimir Putin will win March’s Presidential Election

This is a sure thing.

7. At least one other country will hold a referendum to leave the European Union

The main problem with this however, is England. Should England be regionalised, or should it remain one large entity within the framework of a federal Britain? That’s a question for a constitutional convention and a likely series of referendums.

Either way the people should have their say.

5. Improved Political Education

Education is the key to advancing individuals in society and advancing society itself.

Specifically, substantial, obligatory and non-biased political education is long overdue. If people are to be informed for elections, they need to understand how the system works, who the main political players are and the importance of voting in the first place.

The key to a healthy democracy is a knowledgeable population. Political education in schools is a much-needed solution to our ill democracy.

6. Automatic Voter Registration

One barrier to voting in the first place is the fact that individuals must register ahead of polling day. Generally, this is a simple procedure that takes a few minutes, however, that’s not the point. Individuals should have an automatic link with the political system via being able to vote from the get-go.

Automatic registration takes place in other countries, why not here?

Let’s make voting easy.

7. Compulsory Voting…For First-Time Voters

Many individuals, including myself, are very vary of making voting compulsory. The freedom not to vote is an important freedom and people should vote for the sake of it.

However, the proposal for first-time compulsory voting is a compromise that could set voters on a path to consistent engagement as there is strong evidence that voting is habitual, meaning that once individuals start they will continue to do so for the rest of their lives. Perhaps it would be worth piloting this to see its impact.

The proposal