It's the economy, stupid.
Ironically, while the WTO seeks to encourage trade between states across the world, some of its rules result in trade friction. According to the WTO’s former director on LBC., WTO rules would not be a disaster, they would make trading costlier as new tariffs would be imposed.
The arguments for a WTO scenario for post-Brexit Britain are the immediacy of trade 'independence'. Without the customs union, the UK could start to make trade deals around the world without having to wait to be independent of the customs union.
Sure, the country would have to start again to make its own trade deals, but the world would not end.
That may be the case, however, there's one reason while this probably won't happen. Recently leaked government forecasts suggest a WTO Brexit could significantly hit UK growth in the long run compared to growth in other EU-aligned forecasts, as reported by the BBC. Furthermore, the shock of the UK leaving the EU without anything in place, as well as the very real impact in terms of newly imposed WTO tariffs, will have will surely cause the pound to fall once more.
Businesses reliant on importing and exporting to and from the EU and further afield would likely not be happy with this decision.
On top of this, for so long, the Conservatives have championed themselves as the party of the economy. Polls continue to show that May's band of blues lead Labour on this very issue, but likely economic damage from crashing out of the EU into the WTO framework would weaken this image.
Labour are unlikely to shake off the image that they are disastrous for the economy in the minds of many centre-ground voters, (even though last decade’s crash was a world-wide phenomenon), but a WTO Brexit could even the playing field between the two main parties.
Since the election, Labour have looked like a government in waiting. To many, Corbyn might not be ideal, but a WTO Brexit would likely end the Tory's age of economic competence and could hand Corbyn the keys to Number 10.
For political reasons, there will likely be an economic deal.
Have something to tell us about this article?