According to the BBC, the recently circulated estimates of impacts are not “government policy”, but they do suggest that while every outcome will deliver growth for the UK, each will be less than growth inside the European Union. The figures, obtained by the BBC, show that economic estimates have been made for three scenarios: single-market membership, a free trade deal and no deal.
The third refers to a scenario in which the UK exits the EU without a deal in place, thus falling back on WTO rules, something which has been characterised as a “hard Brexit.” Here are the seven worst affected regions from such a outcome.
7th – East Midlands
Under the Brexit estimates, a no deal Brexit suggests that the East Midlands’ economic growth over the next decade and a half would be 8.5% lower compared to a situation in which the UK stayed in the EU. In contrast, London’s growth would be just 3.5% less. Furthermore, the numbers suggest that a “soft” Brexit in which the UK retained its single-market membership outside the EU would leave the region 1.8% worse off than EU membership while a free-trade arrangement would leave the area 5% worse off.
Over 6 in 10 Scots voted to remain in the European Union, but the country is suggested to be the sixth worst hit by Brexit if the UK opts for a hard Brexit, something that could happen if MPs reject the deal agreed between David Davis and Michel Barnier. In this scenario, the estimates suggest that Scotland’s economic growth would be 9% less than current forecasts indicate.
5th – Wales
Like England, Wales backed Brexit in a move that surprised many commentators. According to estimates, Wales’ economic growth could be 9.5% less in a no deal scenario compared to an EU membership situation over the next fifteen years. Single-market membership could leave Wales just 1.5% worse off.
4th – North-West
People in the North-West were split over the decision to leave the European Union almost two years ago. The figures suggest that a no deal scenario would leave the region 12% worse off compared to an EU membership scenario.
3rd – Northern Ireland
Like Scotland, London and Gibraltar, Northern Ireland backed remain, but the UK overall voted to leave the European Union. Estimated growth figures suggest that the province could be badly hit by Brexit, with a no deal resulting in a 12% decline in growth compared to a situation where the UK remains in the European Union.
2nd - West Midlands 13%
According to the BBC, many areas in the West Midlands backed a vote to leave the EU, however, these economic forecasts suggest that the decision to exit the union could be bad for the region’s economy. Single-market membership would result in just a 2.5% drop in economic growth for the region over the next decade and a half compared to a situation in which the UK kept its EU membership, but a no deal Brexit would result in a 13% drop.
1st – North-East
In each modelled scenario, the North-East is the worst affected region. A single-market deal could result in 3% fall in economic growth compared to an 11% fall for a free-trade deal and a 16% fall for a no deal arrangement.
Will these figures change anyone’s mind or is Brexit set in stone?
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