SNP lead in new Scottish poll, but unionists have majority

A new Scottish poll puts the SNP up two percentage points, but pro-union parties’ support remains high.

The latest Scotland only poll from Survation for the Daily Record, conducted 24th – 28th January, puts the Scottish National Party on 39% of the vote in Westminster voting intentions. This is up two points from the last poll, as well as up two from the 2017 general election.

The poll also puts Labour on 27% (-2%) and the Conservatives on 24% (no change). This is a turnaround from the 2017 election, in which the Conservatives pulled ahead of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party north of the border.

The poll also puts the Liberal Democrats on 7% and others on 3%.

While the SNP evidently remain the largest party in Scotland, the pro-union parties are backed by a majority of voters although these results would likely translate into a majority of seats for the SNP due to the UK’s first-past-the-post voting system. In fact, according to Survation and the Electoral Calculus seat calculator, such a voting pattern could result in an additional nine seats for the SNP.

The poll also asked voters if Scotland should be an independent country. Like most polls in recent years, Survation’s points to a pro-union majority, with just 46% saying they would like to see an independent Scotland compared to 54% with the opposite view.

For Holyrood constituency voting intentions, the SNP remain in the lead on 42%, significantly ahead of Labour’s 25%, the Conservatives’ 25% and the Liberal Democrats' 6%. As for list voting, 33% picked the SNP, 23% the Conservatives, 9% the Greens, 8% Liberal Democrats and 3% UKIP.

The poll also found continued support for remaining in the European Union, with 66% saying they backed that option. However, this has not translated itself into support for independence, which was once the hope of SNP leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

The SNP remain Scotland’s largest party although union support remains strong.

The question is, how long can the party remain in power?