These three Brexit-backers are the favourites to replace Theresa May

The betting markets’ three favourites to replace the PM were all big players in 2016’s EU vote.

According to Oddschecker, the odds for the next Conservative leader have shifted significantly in the last few weeks which concluded in a underwhelming cabinet reshuffle on Monday.

The seventh favourite to replace May is Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, who could not even stand in a new leadership election as she is not even an MP. The next favourite is Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, whose political stock has increased in recent months, then Brexit Secretary David Davis and Home Secretary Amber Rudd.

The top three are all Brexiteers:

3rd – Andrea Leadsom

Before the reshuffle, there was media chatter that Leadsom could be removed from her position as Leader of the House of Commons, but Leadsom remains in place. Of course, the political ground has shifted considerably since June 2016, but Leadsom did make it into the final two in the last leadership election and could have possibly won. Her place in the top three is somewhat surprising however, considering she was not even in the top three in October.

2nd – Boris Johnson

Despite the gaffes and the inappropriate comments, Johnson remains the second favourite to replace Theresa May. His chances of replacing David Cameron in 2016 were scuppered when his ally Michael Gove put himself forward for the position, but could it be second time lucky for the Foreign Secretary?

1st – Jacob Rees-Mogg

One might have expected Michael Gove, who has made a significant impact since re-joining the cabinet in June, to top the list, but the betting markets’ favourite is Jacob Rees-Mogg, the out-of-touch backbencher who has inspired #moggentum in certain parts of the Tory grassroots.

Rees-Mogg has remained the favourite since the summer, but how long can it last? Could he really replace Theresa May?

Party membership has been in decline for decades, but the last three years have seen somewhat of a renaissance in Britain, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and the SNP all reporting a surge in figures for various reasons.

The problem is finding out who these members are and why they join. There is a large body of political science literature on this topic, with various survey having been conducted on the different parties over the years. The latest study, the large Party Members Project, funded by the ESRC and led by political scientists Tim Bale, Paul Webb and Monica Poletti, aims to understand who joins modern political parties from large samples of modern party members.