The next US presidential election is not until 2020, but in America, the country is in constant election mode. The mid-terms are less than a year away and would-be presidential candidates are already considering their options across the country.
If Donald Trump survives his first full term he will likely be the Republicans’ 2020 candidate, but a united challenge from the moderate wing of his party could see an end to his next presidential bid.
On the other side of the political aisle, the Democrats could have some interesting choices to make. In 2016, the split was between the more radical Bernie Sanders and the classic establishment candidate Hillary Clinton.
Sanders gained unprecedented levels of support, and if he were five years younger, he would probably be viewed as the definite favourite to clinch the nomination in three years’ time.
According to Oddschecker (as of 23rd November), Sanders is the betting markets’ third favourite to succeed Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee, and while a Sanders presidential bid is still possible, it looks rather unlikely.
But Sanders should not fear for his progressive cause because the two favourite Democrats to take on Donald Trump in three years’ time are significant progressive champions.
The odds suggest a minute difference between the two women, but the second favourite to take on Trump is currently progressive Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Warren has represented Massachusetts since 2013, and did not back a candidate in the 2016 Democratic primaries, something that could play to her advantage in the 2020 contest as she could bridge the divide between Sanders and Clinton supporters. Her political – and non-political experience – are her big assets, as well as her progressive viewpoints, but could she beat Donald Trump?
The favourite Democrat to win the party's presidential nomination is Kamala Harris. Harris’ rise in the party has been phenomenal. She was only first elected in 2016 as a senator from California, but there has been a lot of buzz in the media about a possible presidential run in three years.
And it’s not surprising, she is a competent speaker with a coherent progressive vision.
According to the Washington Post, she co-sponsored Bernie Sanders’ single-payer bill, in a move that suggests if Sanders does not run, his progressive cause would be safe with Harris.
Her one major weakness is her lack of national political experience, but Obama had limited experience before running a for the office and…Donald Trump did win the presidency.