7 – Czech Republic
According to William Hill, the odds of the Czech Republic following the UK out the Exit door stand at 16/1. The country’s October elections were characterised by the rise of the far-right, anti-EU Freedom and Direct Democracy Party, who won 10% of the vote and 22 seats. The Eurosceptic ODS also made gains and became the country’s second largest party. Anti-EU sentiment is making progress in the country.
6 – Ireland
The next favourite to leave the EU is Britain’s euro-using neighbour Ireland. It’s difficult to imagine the country leaving the EU at this stage, but the impact of Brexit could affect the country in ways that were unthinkable before. William Hill offer odds of 12/1.
5 – Hungary
Viktor Orban’s anti-immigration Fidesz Party rules Hungary with an overall majority. Elections are taking place next year, and polls suggest that Fidesz will remain in power.
4 – France
The prospect of Marine Le Pen’s Front National taking the country out the EU have – for now been diluted – due to Emmanuel Macron’s stunning victory earlier this year. France is deeply integrated with much of the rest of the EU, but the Pew Research Centre poll mentioned above, indicates that an overwhelming 61% of people in France have a negative view of the EU.
Macron’s win in May masks a deep unease with the European project across much of his nation.
The odds of France being the next country to leave the EU? 10/1.
3 - Sweden
Like Hungary, Sweden goes to the polls next year. Opinion polls suggest that incumbent Social Democrats will emerge as the largest party, but the anti-EU Sweden Democrats could end up as the country’s second largest party and overtake the centre-right Moderates.
2018 could be a big year for Euroscepticism in this Nordic nation.
The odds of Sweden next leaving the EU are 6/1.
2 – Italy
Since 2013, Italy has been led by a centre-left coalition headed by the Democratic Party. The country heads to the ballot box next year, and polls suggest that the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement could end up as the largest party.
Elections are due to be held in May next year. The odds of an Italexit (please, let’s not use that phrase!) stand at 5/1.
1 – Greece
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Greece is the favourite to follow the UK out the EU. William Hill offer odds of 2/1 for the country to depart to the union next. Since the late noughties, Greece has faced financial turmoil, much of which has been blamed on its use of the euro, something that could be contributing to the fact that it is favourite to leave the union.
According to Trading Economics, the country’s recent GDP growth figures have been mixed.
The full list of odds from William Hill can be viewed here and are accurate as of the 23rd November.