The numbers show that there have been 37 major UK-wide polls since the 2017 June election. Of these 37 polls, Labour has led the Tories in 29 of them, thus 78% of the total.
Here are some other findings from HITC's analysis of the numbers:
- Out of the polls Labour leads in, the party’s average lead is 3.3 percentage points. It is worth noting, that different polling companies use different methodologies to arrive at their numbers so the insight into this average is limited.
- In eleven polls (30%) Labour has had a lead of four points or more. As a rule of thumb, three percentage points is a typical margin of error, so it is worth noting that Labour has only had a “clear” victory in less than one in three post-election polls.
- Labour’s largest poll win was an eight-point lead in a YouGov/Times poll from the 6th July.
- There have been just five “neck and neck” polls, although as noted there have been a fair few more that have resulted in statistical ties.
- The Conservatives have led in just three polls – that’s just 8% of all those since June’s snap election.
As stated, aggregating different polls is not the most methodologically sound thing to do, but here’s an average of all poll numbers since the election:
- Labour 42.6%
- Conservatives 40.2%
- Liberal Democrats 6.97%
- UKIP 3.6%
- Greens 1.97%
- Labour lead average: 2.3%
A first glance at the numbers suggests that things are moving soundly in Labour’s direction, and considering the massive poll leads Theresa May’s party had ahead of the election, Labour’s poll performance is good. However, the numbers show that overall little has changed since the election. The two main parties are still within a couple of points of each other, and Labour have only had clear leads in 30% of the polls.
Jeremy Corbyn has momentum on his side. The next election is his to lose, but the polling suggests that there is still a mountain to climb.
UK Polling Report’s data can be accessed here. The latest poll at time of writing was the ICM/Guardian poll of the 23rd October.