The latest Survation poll suggests that 44% of UK voters would back Labour, a staggering six points ahead of the Conservatives (on 38%). The poll also puts the Liberal Democrats on 7%, UKIP on 4%, the SNP on 3%, the Greens on 1% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.
Full Voting Intention was: LAB 44% (+2); CON 38% (NC); LD 7% (-1); UKIP 4% (NC); SNP 3% (-1); GRE 1% (NC); PC 1% (NC); AP 2% (NC)— Survation. (@Survation) October 18, 2017
The poll is the latest in a long line of poll since the general election, which have put Labour in-front of the Conservatives.
According to Electoral Calculus, if the results from this poll were repeated in a new general election, the parliament would look something like this:
- Labour – 321 seats
- Conservatives – 265
- Liberal Democrats – 14
- Greens – 1
- SNP – 28
- Plaid Cymru – 3
- Northern Ireland parties - 18
Labour would be just five seats short of a majority, although in reality they would have a working majority.
Of course, under the UK’s voting system, it is difficult to translate seats into votes, but it suggests that there is a very real and likely possibility that Labour could form Britain’s next government. Electoral Calculus provides us with a flavour of what could happen if Labour were to lead the Tories by six points in a new election.
The poll also asked voters about their attitudes towards the European Union, and found that 52% of respondents would vote remain if there were to be a new referendum, slightly ahead of the 48% who said they would vote to leave. While the poll puts remain ahead, the fact that Britain’s two largest parties are committed to taking the UK out the EU, there is very little chance of the country staying.
The Survation poll was released on the 17th October, and was conducted 4th – 5th October. The full results can be accessed here.