4 reasons Amber Rudd will never become prime minister

Could Amber Rudd succeed Theresa May as prime minister? The odds are not in her favour.

Here are four reasons why the home secretary will never become prime minister?

1. Rudd the remainer

During the EU referendum campaign, Rudd supported the UK to remain in the European Union. Yes, so did Theresa May, but Rudd was much more vocal about her support. Furthermore, when the time comes to pick a new leader, after the mistake the Tories made with Theresa May, it looks highly likely that MPs and party members will want an original Brexiteer.

On top of that, Brexit is the number one issue facing the country, but a recent YouGov poll suggests that just 22% of Tory members think Rudd wants the UK to leave the EU. A whopping 48% think she actually wants EU membership to continue.

Rudd would have a hard time winning over Tory Brexiteers.

2. Hastings and Rye

Amber Rudd’s constituency is the coastal seat of Hastings and Rye. She barely held on to the seat in June’s snap election, winning just over 300 more votes that her Conservative rival. On one hand, she could receive a “leadership bounce” at the next election, or she could even switch seats, but each of these proposals have a problem.

Firstly, on the issue of staying where she is, Labour would likely seize the opportunity and target her seat heavily. If Rudd lost, the Tory Party would face a major set-back. Such a result would be extremely embarrassing whether they won or lost the overall election. Secondly, if Rudd switched seats, the Tories would probably face a significant PR crisis. Prime Minister Rudd would face accusations of running scared, an outcome that would play right into Jeremy Corbyn's hands.

3. Theresa May

Amber Rudd is arguably far too close to Theresa May – she even took her place in June’s leadership debates. There’s nothing wrong with alliances in politics, of course not, but for Tories wanting a break from May’s disastrous premiership, Rudd would not be seen as a fresh alternative.

In order to move forward, the Conservatives need a clean-break.

4. The membership

As it stands, Rudd does not perform well in Tory membership polls. A July YouGov poll put her on 4% while a Conservative Home poll from around the same time put her on just 6%.

A more recent (September) Conservative Home poll, also put her on 6%.

If Rudd wants to become prime minister, she has a long way to climb. Then again in modern politics, the impossible can become the probable.

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