In the event of an early election, these are the seats Theresa May will need to retain to stay in power.
7th – Chipping Barnett
The former Transport Minister and Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villers won the seat with a moderately sized majority in 2015. Two years later, Labour’s Emma Whysall gave her a run for her money, ultimately winning 353 votes fewer than Villers.
For Labour to form the next government, this is exactly the sort of seat they should be targeting come the next election.
6th – Hastings and Rye
The seat of Hastings and Rye is currently held by Home Secretary Amber Rudd. If Labour win here next election, it would be an embarrassing defeat for the Conservatives. The fact that the seat is so marginal also weakens Rudd’s leadership prospects. If Prime Minister Rudd were to lead her party into the next election, a defeat by Labour across the board and in her own constituency would irrevocably damage the Conservative party.
In June, Rudd won just 346 votes more than her Labour opponent in this South-East seat.
5th – Pudsey
Tory MP Stuart Andrew has held the seat since 2010, winning it from Labour in a vote that reflected the overall result across the country. A Tory defeat here would put the Conservatives on a pre-2020 level of support.
In the most recent vote, Andrew won by just 331 votes.
4th – St. Ives
Unlike the previous three seats, the main challenger is a Liberal Democrat.
Vince Cable’s party first won the seat back in 1997, holding it until the 2015 election. In June, former Liberal Democrat MP Andrew George came in second behind the Tories, losing by just 312 votes.
With such a close result, the Liberal Democrats will likely put all the resources they can into winning here next time.
3rd – Stirling
One of the big stories of June’s election was the Conservative surge north of the border. The SNP won the seat from Labour in 2015, but the Ruth Davidson's Scottish Tories jumped from third to first place in this year’s snap election. However, the SNP performed well, coming in just 148 votes behind Stephen Kerr.
2nd – Richmond Park
Richmond Park was held by the Liberal Democrats between for thirteen years until 2010 when it was taken by the Conservatives’ Zac Goldsmith. At the tail-end of last year however, Goldsmith resigned and called a by-election, standing as an independent in protest over Heathrow. In this pro-remain constituency, Goldsmith lost out to the Liberal Democrat candidate Sarah Olney.
Olney went on to lose to Goldsmith earlier this year, being defeated by just 45 votes. Had the Liberal Democrats won both the marginal seats on this list, they would have won 14 rather than the 12 they got – up from the eight won in 2015.
1st – Southampton, Itchen
This seat is the fifth most marginal seat in the country, coming in behind Dudley North, Kensington, Perth and North Perthshire, and Fife North East. A stunningly small 30 votes separated Tory MP Royston Smith and Labour challenger Simon Letts in this traditionally Labour seat at the most recent general election.
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