Labour lead Conservatives by five points in new Survation poll

A new Survation poll, conducted for the Mail on Sunday, puts Labour ahead of the government by five points.

The poll puts Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party on 43% (up 2 percentage points from the last poll conducted in July) while the Conservatives were placed on 38%. The 38% figure marks no change from the previous poll.

The survey is bad news for Theresa May who made a claim that she could stay on to lead her party into the 2022 election, according to the BBC.

Meanwhile, the poll puts Vince Cable’s Liberal Democrats on 7% and UKIP on 4%. It also puts ‘others’ on 7%.

The poll also found that most voters support a post-Brexit transitional deal where the UK would stay in the single-market and customs union

Is Labour on track to forming a government?

According to the Electoral Calculus calculator, if such a result were to be repeated in a general election, Labour would win 317 seats, just short of a majority. The total of 317 matches what the Conservatives won in June’s election.

The poll also puts the Conservatives on 267, and the Liberal Democrats on 14. Such a result could put Jeremy Corbyn into Number 10, perhaps with a deal with the Lib Dems or the SNP – or even both. Although it is worth noting that the Electoral Calculus calculator measures uniform swing, and the UK’s voting system makes it difficult to translate poll results into seats, the resultant calculation suggests that Labour could form some sort of government.

The full results of the Survation poll can be found here, and was conducted between 31st August and 1st September.

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