According to the betting comparison site Oddschecker, here are the betting markets' seven most likely Republican nominees for the next US presidential election.
1. Donald Trump
The favourite is currently president Donald Trump. Incumbent presidents are usually given a clear shot at running for a second term by their party, for instance, the last three US presidents faced no major challenge from their party in the middle of their eight years, but with struggling approval ratings and numerous controversies, Donald Trump may face a challenge from a moderate Republican. On top of that, he could lose out on the nomination by being removed from office before the end of his first term.
That all said, due to historical precedent, Trump is the favourite to take the 2020 Republican nomination.
His odds with Ladbrokes and Coral are 6/4.
2. Mike Pence
America’s current vice president is the second favourite for the 2020 Republican nomination. If Trump steps down before the end of his first term, Pence would replace him as president and become the presumptive Republican nominee. On top of that, establishment Republicans who wish to challenge Trump could take advantage of Pence’s incumbent status to challenge the sitting president.
Trump may be the favourite, but a Pence nomination and presidency is a likely possibility.
His Coral and Ladbrokes odds are 7/2.
3. Paul Ryan
The Speaker of the House and one-time vice-presidential candidate is currently the betting markets’ third-favourite to become the Republicans' 2020 nominee. Ryan was seen as a candidate for the 2016 election, but ruled out a bid last April, according to the New York Times.
Could he be planning a presidential bid for 2020 instead?
His odds with Ladbrokes and Coral are 16/1.
2024 may be a more realistic option for the Speaker.
4. John Kasich
The governor of Ohio ran for the Republican nomination in 2016, but ultimately lost out to Donald Trump. For a 2020 presidential nomination, his odds are 20/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes.
News outlets had recently been reporting that Kasich could run for president on a unity ticket with Democrat Hickenlooper, however, Kasich recently denied this as a possibility in an NBC "Meet The Press" interview.
5. Nikki Haley
Haley served as the Republican governor of South Carolina before being made US Ambassador to the UN in January this year. Like Kasich, her odds with Ladbrokes and Coral are 20/1.
6. Marco Rubio
During the 2016 Republican primaries, Rubio looked like a strong contender for president, but like Kasich he lost out to Donald Trump. He won the third-highest number of delegates, behind Trump and Cruz, but came fourth in terms of the popular vote.
His odds with Coral and Ladbrokes are 25/1.
7. Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse
Like Rubio, these two Republicans have odds of 25/1 with both Ladbrokes and Coral. Cotton is a senator from Arkansas and Sasse is a senator from Nebraska. A report by the New York Times suggests that these two senators could be planning possible 2020 presidential bids due to their recent visits to Iowa. The article also suggests that Mike Pence’s schedule is “full of political events”.
Historically speaking, this conversation should have very little point to it. By convention, the incumbent president is given a clear shot at winning a second-term, but Donald Trump has reshaped the political rules. He came from nowhere to win the 2016 nomination and then the presidency. However, a challenge from a mainstream Republican, or an early end to Trump’s term, could pave the way for a different candidate to emerge.
Step forward Mike Pence?
All odds are accurate as of 29th August.
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