Labour’s support sky-rocketed at the election, but where does it have to succeed to win next time round?
Much of the narrative following last month’s election was that Labour support increased and that the party is now more popular than it has been in years. True, Corbyn’s party won over 40% of the vote, but they still have some way to climb if they wish to form the next government.
How many seats does the party need to win?
At the election, Labour won 262 seats, an improvement on both their 2010 and 2015 performances. The figure puts them 64 seats short of the 326 seats they need to form a majority government.
Of the current marginal seats, which Labour will need to target to do better next time, a uniform swing of 3.57% in Labour’s favour would allow them to take the 64 most winnable seats for the party, according to analysis from 'Election Polling'. This would give them a majority and put Jeremy Corbyn in Number 10.
Of these 64 most winnable seats, 45 are held by Conservatives, including Amber Rudd, and 18 by the SNP. The other one is held by Plaid Cymru.
The fact that the vast majority of the 64 are held by the Conservatives is good news for Labour. If the party gains votes, but fails to win an overall majority, the seats with the smallest swings that Labour requires are the ones most likely to fall to the party. This means that in the event of a hung parliament, Labour would benefit and the Conservatives would lose out, strengthening the former's position during for negotiations.
Furthermore, the fact that out of all these seats, the highest majority Labour would be required to topple is just shy of 4,000, shows just how close Labour is to power. It is also worth noting that twenty-two of these seats have majorities less than 1,000.
Of course, elections do not obey the law of perfect uniform swings across countries as different nations, regions and constituencies have different issues and different politics. Nonetheless, a quick glance at the seats Labour should be targetting for 2022 - or whenever the next election is - illustrates just how close Jeremy Corbyn might be to walking into Number 10.
The full list of Labour's target seats can be found here on 'Election Polling'.
Have something to tell us about this article?