How Middlesbrough are sleep-walking their way towards relegation

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The improved form of Swansea City and Hull City has left Middlesbrough looking perilously over their shoulder at the danger of Premier League relegation.

Draws away at Manchester City and Arsenal, twinned with just 11 league defeats all season, the same tally as the likes of West Ham and Southampton only tells half the story for Middlesbrough. In their 25 league games this season, Boro have not once looked out of place among England’s elite, only losing by a three-goal margin on one occasion.

That only tells half the story though, as Aitor Karanka’s men currently sit just 2 points above the relegation zone, without a win in 8 games and just 3 goals scored in those games. Boro’s success in the last two seasons in the Championship was built on a solid base, they routinely had the most formidable defence in the second tier, and that is something Aitor Karanka has stuck to in the Premier League.

Middlesbrough are clearly a team who contain first and look to get forward second, and it shows. They have won the fewest games of any team in the Premier League. They have scored the fewest goals in the Premier League. They have had the fewest shots on target in the Premier League, and the second fewest shots off target (second to Sunderland). Those stats are displayed in a table below.

These stats will come as no surprise to Middlesbrough fans. Their goal scoring woes in particular have been well-documented throughout the course of the season, but this shouldn’t really be the case. The list of strikers/forwards who have been on Boro’s books this season is extensive; Alvaro Negredo, Christhian Stuani, Patrick Bamford, Jordan Rhodes, David Nugent, Rudy Gestede.

Naturally, not all are Premier League quality, or likely to fire Middlesbrough to safety single-handedly, but equally, that is not a poor collection of firepower. In Alvaro Negredo they have a Spanish international who scored 23 goals in 49 games last time he was in England. Christhian Stuani is a Uruguayan international, Bamford is a former Championship Player of the Year, Gestede was signed for £6 million in January.

Perhaps the most notable of all is Jordan Rhodes, who was seemingly woefully mismanaged. He scored 83 goals in 159 league games for Blackburn prior to joining Boro, making him the most clinical goal scorer outside the top flight in that time. If anyone deserved a shot at the Premier League it was him. Yet despite Boro’s woes in front of goal, Karanka never seemed interested.

Jordan Rhodes left Middlesbrough to join Sheffield Wednesday in January

Looking at the 6 attacking options Boro have had at their disposal this season, it’s hard to justify their lack of goals. Their attacking options are not the problem – the way they are set-up to play is. Promoted teams adopting a cautious approach is nothing new, but the lack of adventure and threat shown by Boro seems over the top.

Their squad is just as gifted and blessed with goals as that of Burnley, who have more than twice as many wins and almost 50% more goals this season. This is purely and simply a case of Boro’s defence-first attitude at all times, and the table suggests it could cost them.

At the turn of the year, the sheer dreadfulness of Hull City, Sunderland, Swansea and Crystal Palace suggested Middlesbrough would be able to keep afloat by grinding out points here and there, picking up the occasional win against a bottom side and keeping things tight at the back.

Hull City and Swansea City look much-improved under new managers

However, the vast strides made by relegation rivals Hull City and Swansea City over the last month have left Middlesbrough in a much more vulnerable position. The Tigers in particular looked to be doomed not long ago, but wins against Bournemouth and Liverpool at home and a draw at Old Trafford has left the East Yorkshire club with a real chance of survival.

Swansea’s rise has been even more dramatic and arguably even more impressive. Under the stewardship of Paul Clement, January’s Premier League Manager of the Month, the Swans have won 4 of their last 6 games, as many as Middlesbrough have won all season, and have now leapfrogged Karanka’s men in the Premier League table.

The problem for Middlesbrough then is an immediate one. Aitor Karanka has to decide whether to persist with an approach which has seen his team appear impotent up front and rarely victorious, or whether to roll the dice, and take more risks with the intention of winning games, as Marco Silva and Paul Clement have achieved at Hull and Swansea respectively.

Middlesbrough manager Aitor Karanka looking dejected

It’s difficult to see such a sudden change occurring at the Riverside. One can’t see Karanka deserting his defensive principles, even as panic starts to set in. The relegation battle is now incredibly tight, as tight as it has been in a number of years, and anyone from Bournemouth down could be in serious trouble.

Even if Hull and Swansea’s turnaround continues, Sunderland, Palace and Leicester all appear to be deep in the mire, and arguably in more immediate danger than Middlesbrough, who have in fact drawn with Everton and West Brom in their last three outings.

Read: Middlesbrough’s 2006 UEFA Cup final XI: Where are they now?

It would be some risk to bank on this though. Leicester are the reigning champions, Palace have an experienced boss and spent spent big in January, and Sunderland routinely turn it around in the last two months of the season. Middlesbrough are on course to win just 6 games this season. Not since West Brom in the 2004-05 season has a team survived with so few wins.

Middlesbrough face Palace, Sunderland, Swansea, Hull and Burnley in their next 7 league games, which is followed by a really nasty run-in. It is obviously imperative that they win some of those six-pointers. If they don’t show a bit more attacking intent against their fellow strugglers, they could be in real trouble by the time they face Man City, Chelsea, Southampton and Liverpool in their last 4 games.