The latest batch of constituency polling suggests that the Scottish Labour leader is in with a chance of holding his seat.
The poll gives the SNP a lead of three points in Murphy’s seat of East Renfrewshire, suggesting that the race is tighter than suggested by the previous Ashcroft poll, which put the Scottish Labour leader nine points behind his SNP opponent.
The new poll gives the following results:
The previous poll conducted in early April, gave these results:
SNP 40%. Labour 31%. Conservatives 25%. Lib Dems 3%. Others 2%.
Furthermore, the poll before that gave Labour a one point lead over the SNP (34%-33%).
Murphy has narrowed the gap since the previous poll, but East Renfrewshire will be a seat to watch out for on election night. If Murphy fails to hold on, there will likely be calls for him to resign his position as Scottish Labour leader. If he remains an MP then he could still be in such a position if the SNP make substantial gains in other seats on the night.
The SNP surge could end Murphy’s career. The election on May 7th could be a make or break moment for the Scottish Labour leader.
Overall, the SNP’s surge is even more impressive when one looks at the results the party got in the 2010 election in Murphy’s seat. Murphy got 51% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 30%, the Lib Dems on 9%, and the SNP on 9% as well. If Murphy loses then the SNP will have caused a massive political earthquake above the border, but the new poll suggests that he might - just - hold on.
See the full results of Ashcroft's polls here.