With just three weeks until the UK’s most unpredictable general election, what are the polls telling us?
The poll gives Labour a slight edge, but the one point difference between them and the Conservatives places the difference within the margin of error, showing just how close the race to Number Ten is with just three weeks to go.
So what has changed in the last few months?
In the last few months UKIP’s poll ratings have fallen slightly to the low teens, suggesting that many tempted to vote UKIP are going back to their original party. Nonetheless, with Nigel Farage’s party expected to poll well above 10% on election day they will still play a significant role in the election.
Furthermore, both Labour and the Tories have remained neck and neck. A few polls have put one or the significantly ahead, but if you blinked you probably missed it as the polls returned to showing the tight race.
In addition to this, the Green party’s share has fallen below its peak, but the party will still likely perform much better in May than five years ago.
As for Scotland, the SNP still look set to dominate the political landscape north of the border, with all the recent polls putting them in the mid-high forties - and even the low fifties - for Scottish voting intentions in Westminster.
Additionally, a recent ComRes poll for ITV suggests that the Conservatives are making gains at the Liberal Democrats’ expense in key south-west Lib Dem-Conservative seats.
The poll put the Conservatives up to 44% (from 40% in 2010) and the Liberal Democrats down 22 points (down from 48% in 2010 to 26% now). The poll also suggests that Labour, UKIP and the Greens are making inroads in these seats.
Furthermore, the latest batch of constituency polling by Lord Ashcroft suggests Labour are making some gains in key Tory held seats, but is not making massive progress.
So overall, with three weeks to go it is incredibly hard to even guesstimate what exactly will happen.The polls suggest a neck and neck race and that the smaller parties are performing marginally worse compared to a few months ago.
How this will play out on 7th May is anyone’s guess.
Access the full results of the latest YouGov poll here.
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