Majority think the SNP will seek another referendum within five years

A new YouGov poll suggests that most UK voters think the Scottish SNP government will push for another independence referendum in five years.

Voters were asked the following question:

"How likely, if at all, do you think it is that the SNP government in Scotland will seek to hold a further referendum on Scottish independence in the next five years?"

A total of 33% said ‘very likely’, whilst another 33% said ‘fairly likely’, meaning that 66% think it is likely.

On the other hand, 14% said ‘fairly unlikely’, whilst 5% said ‘unlikely’, meaning that a total of 19% think that the prospect is unlikely.

A further 14% said they did not know.

SEE ALSO: SNP increase lead over Labour as poll confirms Sturgeon Scottish debate victory

Scotland rejected independence 55%-45% in last year’s September referendum, but the SNP have surged in support since then, with the party likely to take a significant number of seats north of the border, meaning that they could be crucial players in the event of a hung-parliament in May.

Whether or not the SNP can hold another referendum within five years will depend on a few things. It will depend on if the pledge for another referendum is included in the SNP’s 2016 manifesto for the May election, in which it will hope to hold onto its slim majority. Also it will depend on under what circumstances they may wish to hold a referendum, for example Britain voting the leave the EU. In the recent Scottish six-way TV debate Nicola Sturgeon said that a referendum could be triggered by "material change". And it will also depend on if they can win in Holyrood next May.

The poll suggests that a clear majority of voters in the UK think that the SNP will seek to hold another referendum by the end of the decade, but whether or not they will is a different matter.

See the full results of the YouGov poll for the Sunday Times here. The poll was conducted between the 10th and 11th of April.


Labour manifesto unveiled: what are the key proposals?

Conservative-Lib Dem-DUP coaltion: a popular option for Tories

Referendum effect: turnout in Scotland likely to be higher than rest of the UK

Have something to tell us about this article?