Will Nigel Farage be out of a job in five weeks?

A new poll shows Farage is in danger of not winning his parliamentary seat, if this happens he’s promised to step down as UKIP’s leader.

A poll conducted by ComRes in South Thanet, the constituency UKIP leader Nigel Farage is trying to win, has shown UKIP behind the Conservatives, and only just ahead of Labour.

The full results of the poll was: Conservatives 31%, UKIP 30%, Labour 29%, Lib Dem 5%.

Given the margin of error for this opinion poll, it’s not possible to say with full confidence who exactly is ahead in South Thanet. However, what it does show is a very tight three-way race.

This is significant as a Survation poll, quoted by the Independent, back in February gave UKIP a 11 point lead in South Thanet, with Labour second and the Conservatives narrowly behind in third. This shows a big drop in UKIP support in the seat Nigel Farage is trying to win.

What’s more worrying for UKIP is that back in February Farage claimed, as cited by the Guardian, he would “probably win” in South Thanet, and that if he did not win he would resign as party leader. Given the personal appeal of Nigel Farage nationally, this could be a devastating blow for UKIP.

It is for this reason UKIP have tried to stop the poll being released, afraid it will only help the turnout of the anti-UKIP vote, and encourage is rivals in South Thanet. A UKIP spokesman, quoted by the Daily Mail, has claimed the poll is “unreliable”, but the methodology is no different to any other constituency poll - including the one in February showing Farage with a 11 point lead.

But there are seven things which I can say with 95% certainty will happen. If I am wrong then come back and correct me in just over a month's time.

1) There will be a hung parliament. In May the country will face another one of these first-past-the-post anomalies, highlighting how unfit for purpose our two-party electoral system is for our plural party system. Furthermore, it is more than likely that more than two parties will be needed to form a coalition or confidence and supply.

2) UKIP vote share will rise significantly. Nigel Farage’s party has gained massively in the last few years, both in the EU elections and in the polls. However, I cannot imagine the party getting more than five seats, due to the constraints of FPTP. Douglas Carswell will certainly hang on to Clacton and Mark Reckless will likely hold on to Rochester. As for Nigel Farage, polls suggest the race is close but my gut says he will win his seat - but it will be tight.

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