Six weeks to go: Conservatives on polling high

David Cameron

The latest YouGov poll puts the Tories on 36% - the highest for some time in such polls. Are the Conservatives on course for victory?

The poll gave the following results for all the parties:


Such results, if repeated in just under six weeks time at the polls would likely see the Conservatives get the largest number of seats, but still result in a hung parliament.

The poll is good news for David Cameron’s party. A share of 36% of the vote would be a repeat of what they got back in 2010. Recent YouGov polls have also shown falling shares of the vote for UKIP, with the previous two putting Nigel Farage’s party on 12%. The latest puts them on 13%, but suggests that the party has lost some support from the high teens it was getting last year in YouGov polls. Such falling support for UKIP can only be good news for the Conservatives, as it could be showing that many UKIP voters are be going back to the Tories.

The poll has the two largest parties within two points of each other, but this could show that the Conservatives are pulling ahead, however, with the polls still so close much could change in the next six weeks. 2015's general election will be one of the most unpredictable in decades.

Furthermore, the poll puts the Greens on 5%, a share much higher than their 2010 performance, but lower than the 7%-8% they were regularly getting in the polls a month or so back. Such a fall is arguably another sign that with the election now six weeks away, voters are moving away from the smaller parties and towards the traditional choices.

The poll indicates just how close this general election will be, but is also part of a trend that the shares for UKIP and the Greens are falling. In May the smaller parties might not do as well as was suggested months ago when the Greens were riding high and UKIP were getting support in the high teens, but it is hard to imagine that they will not make a huge impact nonetheless.

The full results of the poll can be accessed here. YouGov interviewed 1,698 GB adults for the Sun between the 25th and 26th of March.


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