SNP surge: party set to gain first ever Edinburgh MPs

New polling data suggests that the SNP, who are already gaining momentum, are about to dominate Scotland’s capital in May.

According to the Edinburgh Evening News, the data comes from a group of Populus polls taken in February. The poll gives the following results across the whole of Edinburgh:

SNP 41.6%. LABOUR 23.3%. CONSERVATIVES 18.2%. LIB DEMS 7.4%.

Such results if repeated in the general election would likely give the SNP all of Edinburgh's seats, however, a lot will depend on how the individual seats go, which are held by Labour and the Liberal Democrat MPs.

A swing of this magnitude as indicated by the poll would be a tremendous feat for a party that has never won at Westminster Scotland-wide. According to the Edinburgh Evening News if these results were repeated in May there would be an almost 30% swing in the SNP’s favour, with Labour’s share of the vote falling almost 14%. Additionally, the Conservatives’ share would be roughly the same and the Liberal Democrats would suffer massively, falling by 21 points since 2010.

As for the other parties, the polling data suggests that the share taken by the likes of the Greens and UKIP could be up by almost 7%.

Even if the SNP gain one seat in Edinburgh history will be made, but polling indicates that they are well on track for taking most of Edinburgh’s seats if not all. This is in line with the SNP’s growing dominance on Scotland’s political stage. Come May, they will likely cause an earthquake in Westminster and could even help decide who will be walking into Number Ten.

The poll is one of many suggesting SNP gains in the capital. A recent Lord Ashcroft poll in the Edinburgh South West constitency suggests that Labour could lose out to the SNP, with the poll putting them 13% behind the nationalists (40% - 27%).

The SNP surge has been going on for months and this poll, at a minimum, highlights this and that in areas which have always been SNP free, like Edinburgh, nowhere is safe from Nicola Sturgeon’s party.

The full results of the poll can be found here.


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