Conservative voters prefer a coalition involving Lib Dems over UKIP

Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling indicates that Tory voters would rather see a coalition involving their current partners.

Overall the poll gave the following results for voting intentions in May:


Furthermore, the 1,003 adults interviewed between the 6th and 8th March by telephone, were asked the following question:

“Some people think that after the general election next year neither Labour nor the Conservatives will have enough MPs to form a government on their own, and the party with the most seats may need to form a coalition with one or more of the smaller parties. Would you be happy or unhappy to see each of the following parties becoming part of a coalition government after the next election?”

For all voters, the Green party were the most popular, with 48% saying they would be happy seeing them in some sort of coalition, however 44% said they would be unhappy. The least popular was Sinn Fein (who do not take their seats in the Commons) with 16% saying they would be happy with them in a coalition, compared to the 74% who would be unhappy.

As for the Lib Dems, 45% of all voters said they would be happy to see the party in another coalition, suggesting that despite their decline the party is at least tolerated by many voters. However, 47% said they would be unhappy with another coalition involving Nick Clegg’s party. As for UKIP, 57% of all voters said they would be unhappy with Nigel Farage’s party being involved in a coalition, well ahead of the 36% who said they would be unhappy with such an arrangement.

However, the interesting data comes from looking at just those voters intending to vote Conservatives. Looking at this data suggests that Tory voters would prefer some sort of coalition involving Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems to Nigel Farage’s UKIP.

Over half (54%) of Conservative voters said they would be happy to see the Lib Dems in another coalition, compared to the 44% who said they would be unhappy with this.

However, when Conservative voters were asked how they would feel if UKIP were to be involved in a coalition well over half (63%) said they would be unhappy with such an arrangement, compared to the 33% who would be happy with a coalition involving UKIP.

Overall, whilst the question asked did not specify a Con-Lib Dem or Con-UKIP coalition, it indicates that Conservatives voters are much more likely to be in favour of a deal with Nick Clegg rather than Nigel Farage. This is despite the fact that many Conservatives have complained that the Lib Dems have held their party back by diluting Conservative policy.

The full results of the poll can be found here.


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