Eleven point lead: is Nigel Farage going to win?

A new poll by Survation gives UKIP’s leader an impressive lead in South Thanet. Can he win?

A new poll by Survation gives UKIP’s leader an impressive lead in South Thanet.

The poll was reportedly funded by Alan Brown, who is a UKIP donor. The poll gave the following results:

UKIP 38.6%. LABOUR 27.6%. CONSERVATIVES 26.6%. GREENS 3.1%. LIB DEMS 2%.

Such results, if repeated in May would put the UKIP leader straight into Westminster and would be an historic win for the party.

The poll, which surveyed 1,011 adults in the constituency between the 8th and 20th of February, will be warmly welcomed by UKIP. Additionally, a total of 1.4% said they would vote for Al Murray, the comedian.

This poll is the best one so far for Farage in the constituency. Lord Ashcroft also conducted a poll at the end of last year, which put the Conservative candidate marginally ahead of Nigel FarageThe poll put the Conservatives on 33% and UKIP on 32%. It also put Labour on 26% and the Lib Dems on 4%.

A UKIP win would be great news for the party as they would finally have their leader in the Houses Of Parliament, along side probably Douglas Carswell and other UKIP MPs. A loss would be bad for the party, but if they did well in other parts of the country then that could likely mitigate the damage.

For the Conservatives on the other hand, a loss would be embarrassing, but a win would be greatly celebrated. Even if the party lose other seats to UKIP, a Conservative win stopping Nigel Farage from entering the Commons would be seen as a significant victory indeed.

Overall, polls are just snapshots and are not forecasters are results, but this latest one in the constituency indicates that Nigel Farage could be on the brink of entering Westminster.

As we enter March there are just over two months until the election. For Nigel Farage, they will be a hard two months, but in the end, they might just pay off.


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