SNP surge: even Scotland rejects the idea of Prime Minister Miliband

Survation’s latest poll for the Daily Record, suggests that Scottish Labour are struggling to take back support from the SNP.

The poll indicates that in Scotland, which has traditionally been a Labour stronghold in Westminster, people prefer the idea of David Cameron remaining Prime Minister compared to Labour’s Ed Miliband taking the job.

The Conservatives have struggled north of the border since 1997 when Labour achieved a massive landslide under Tony Blair, but now it looks as if Labour are also dramatically losing support.

Respondents were asked:

"Who would make the best Prime Minister?"

They gave the following answers:


Neither the Prime Minister or the leader of the opposition are that popular in Scotland, but the fact that more Scots would prefer Cameron over Miliband, suggest that Labour is facing an uphill battle.

This rejection of Labour is reiterated when taking into account of the voting intentions in the general election.

As well as a rejection of Ed Miliband, the poll also indicates that the post-referendum SNP surge is continuing.

For the general election - just over two months away - the poll suggests that Labour will perform poorly. However, it does suggest that the gap between Jim Murphy’s party and the SNP is narrowing, albeit slightly, compared to the company’s last poll.

Westminster voting intentions (Survation):

SNP 45% (-1%). LABOUR 28% (+1%). CONSERVATIVES 15% (+1%). LIB DEMS 5% (-2%).

Overall, this suggests that in Scotland Labour are struggling. This will have effects north of the border by cementing the SNP as Scotland’s largest party. Additionally, the swing towards the SNP, and the rejection of Ed Miliband, indicates that if these results are repeated in May then Labour’s chances of becoming the largest party will be diminished.

If there was more time until the election Labour could close the gap, but with less than three months to go something dramatic would have to happen in Scotland to turn the tide of the SNP surge.

The full results can be found here. Survation asked 1,001 Scots respondents questions between the 12th and 17th of February.


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