2015’s general election is likely going to result in a hung parliament - just like in 2010 - so there has been a lot of speculation over which coalition/confidence and supply agreement will happen.
YouGov’s new poll suggests that a renewing of the current coalition is the least preferred option.
Respondents were asked:
‘If forced to choose from the following four options, which do you prefer as the outcome of the next general election?’
Given the options of just majority governments and coalitions, the most preferred option was a Conservative majority government, with David Cameron as Prime Minister. 35% preferred this outcome.
The second most preferred option, with 26%, was a Labour majority government, with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister.
Then came the option of a Lab-Lib coalition, with Miliband as Prime Minister (18%), then lastly - a repeat of the 2010 coalition with the Conservatives and the Lib Dems and David Cameron as Prime Minister. This was preferred by just 12% of the respondents.
The coalition from 2010-2015 has been an interesting time in British politics. The country is changing and coalitions could become the normality in Westminster. The Liberal Democrats have faced a backlash and this poll is just another sign of that. The poll suggests that there is a stronger demand for a Conservative majority than a Labour majority, but support for the former is only 35%.
However, in better news for the coalition, when respondents were asked: ‘And what if it’s these four options as the outcome of the next election?’, a renewal of the coalition came third.
The most preferred option was a Conservative minority, if the party falls short of a majority (26%). Next came the idea of a Lab-Lib coalition, in the event Labour falls short of a majority (25%).
Then came a Con-Lib coalition with 22%, ahead of a Labour minority government with 19%.
Whether or not it will be possible for there to even be a coalition made up of two parties will not be seen until May. The Liberal Democrats will surely lose seats - and how many they get will be crucial if either the Conservatives or Labour fall short of an absolute majority.
A renewal of the coalition might be possible, but one thing’s clear: it’s not the most popular outcome.
The poll was conducted Sunday 4th January with 651 respondents. The full results can be found here.
What sort of government will be formed in 2015? Will the Liberal Democrats be part of the next government?