Stats suggest Chelsea could dominate Newcastle… but drop points

Mourinho takes his Blues to Newcastle United for Saturday lunch-time's kick off but their road sickness may strike, leaving the away support frustrated.

Chelsea are one of the most in-form teams in England: only two sides have a tighter defence (Southampton and Tottenham Hotspur), they possess the most prolific chance creator in the division (more so than Mesut Ozil) and even Fernando Torres is on the cusp of his best Blues form to date.

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The vast majority of statistics and tradition heading into Chelsea's Saturday lunch-time kick-off with Newcastle United at St James' Park indicates that their domination may continue, however, there are reasons why Magpies fans can be optimistic…

Why Chelsea will dominate Newcastle

  • Newcastle have struggled at home of late and have only managed to return five points from their last seven Premier League matches in Newcastle (from a possible tally of 21), winning just once and drawing twice.
  • Newcastle share top spot for most goal concessions via headers with five for the Premier League season to date. Chelsea, meanwhile, possess players who are strong aerially… John Terry, for example, rescued the club courtesy of his forehead against Tottenham Hotspur in late September while the resurgence of Fernando Torres has also seen him use his bonce. In Frank Lampard, Chelsea also have one of the very few players in the league whose successful crosses (5) outnumbers his unsuccessful ones (4).
  • Eden Hazard: In 702 minutes of Premier League football, Hazard has attempted 370 passes, has won 75% of his 12 tackles, has a shooting accuracy of 66%, assisted once and scored thrice. However, it is his chance creation that stands out the most as he is the Premier League leader with 19 to date.
  • Track record: Hazard's chances (one every 36 minutes) may come thick and fast against Newcastle away as the club average two goals per game in their last five trips to Newcastle in the Premier League.

See also: Did Pardew threaten Mourinho?!

But why they could drop points…

  • Chelsea must be wary of the threat posed by Newcastle outside of the box as, if they afford the black-and-whites too much room then they will likely have a pop on goal - something they have been incredibly successful with, bulging the net five times from distance thus far this season.
  • While Chelsea's record at St James' is strong and Newcastle's current form at their own ground is weak, the Blues' overall away performances have been to a standard lower than we've come to expect from a Jose Mourinho side. Mourinho has won just two of his last nine away games in the division (five draws, two losses) while Chelsea as a whole have only managed to keep their sheets clean thrice in their last 12 away outings.

Can Newcastle deny Chelsea all three points on Saturday or will Mourinho's Blues continue their excellent form? Let us know in the comment section below…

image: © Ben Sutherland

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