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Lewis Hamilton’s prediction about Mercedes’ F1 engine doesn’t add up at Chinese Grand Prix

Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images
Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images
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Lewis Hamilton might have overestimated Mercedes’ engine edge heading into the 2026 Formula 1 season. Even so, he was the closest challenger to the Silver Arrows at the Chinese Grand Prix.

Kimi Antonelli secured pole position in Shanghai, taking advantage of issues on George Russell’s side of the garage. Despite completing just one lap in Q3 after an early stoppage, Russell still managed to line up alongside Antonelli on the front row.

Hamilton qualified third, edging out Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc and improving by one spot compared to Sprint qualifying. Ferrari has shown better race pace than Mercedes this season, which gives Hamilton hope of fighting for a win this weekend.

Ferrari closing the gap as Mercedes’ power boost questions surface

After finishing third in the Sprint race, Hamilton suggested Mercedes were using a ‘party mode’ during Q2, giving them an advantage of around ‘half a second.’

It’s a familiar scenario from earlier in his career when similar claims surfaced during his battles with Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari.

“You see in Q1, we’re not that far away,” Hamilton explained, via Crash.net. “And then all of a sudden, it’s like a huge step. One tenth in Q1 behind, I think it was, and then all of sudden it’s another half a second. It’s a big step.”

But on Saturday, Leclerc was only four-hundredths behind Antonelli’s best time in Q2. While the gap grew during the top 10 shoot-out, Hamilton was still just three and a half tenths off pole.

This marked Ferrari’s best qualifying performance of the season so far. Russell might have posted a quicker time without issues, but there are clear signs that Ferrari are making progress.

Ferrari may have found a weakness in Mercedes

Ferrari appeared to close the gap on Saturday, having previously struggled with energy deployment issues during the first two qualifying sessions of 2026.

With teams still adjusting to the new regulations, there is plenty of untapped potential even before any upgrades are brought in.

Mercedes were reportedly using just 3.5 out of five engine maps on Friday. While that could be interpreted as sandbagging, it also speaks to concerns over reliability.

And as Q3 showed, while the W17 has impressive pace, it’s not without its vulnerabilities.