There will not be a "big Brexodus" from the City immediately after the UK leaves the EU - but the numbers could still rise in the longer term if a good deal does not materialise, MPs were warned today.
Initially job losses may be confined to between 3,500 and 12,000 the City of London Corporation's policy chief Catherine McGuinness told the Brexit select committee - a far cry from the original estimate of up to 75,000 that was forecast last year.
However McGuinness noted the final tally could still be "in keeping" with the Oliver Wyman report, if a deal that protects the sector does not emerge.
"The number of job losses will depend on the amount of access that the sector continues to have and the amount of business it can follow up there," she said this morning.
"Short term, people are only going to move the number of jobs they need to carry on doing business -they can't make best decisions [because of uncertainty].
“We are not expecting a big Brexodus in the first instance. But depending on how things pan out ... in the longer term, we may see many more go,” McGuinness added.
More than two million people work in financial services across Britain.
McGuinness also told the Brexit Select Committee that she was hearing "increasingly fears from EU states and people we deal with that no deal is a possibility".
She noted that large firms had been planning for such a scenario since the result came in - but warned "that wont necessarily be in the UK's interest, because that means operations will move elsewhere".