Dead heat: Labour and Conservatives each on 40%

A new poll conducted by BMG Research for the Independent suggests Britain’s two main parties are each on 40%.

Theresa May’s Conservatives are struggling with Brexit while Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is staying relatively quiet on the most defining issue of our time, yet both parties have consistently polled around the 40% mark since last June’s election.

The most recent BMG/Independent poll is no different with 40% of respondents saying they would back the Conservatives compared to another 40% saying they would vote for Labour. Compared to the most recent equivalent poll (conducted in December 2017), the Tories are up three points and Labour remain where they were.

As for the Liberal Democrats, the latest poll puts them on 8% (down one percentage point) while also putting UKIP on 5% (the same as last time) and the Greens on 4%.

In addition to asking about voting intentions, the pollsters also asked respondents about the government’s Brexit plans.

A staggering 74% said the government’s overall Brexit plans were unclear while the same share of respondents also said the same about the government’s plans for post-Brexit trade. Additionally, 75% said the government’s plans on immigration were unclear while 71% said the same about the government’s plans for Northern Ireland. However, the unclear figure for the government’s plans for EU nationals living in the UK was 64%.

Analysis:

The latest voting intention figures confirm that very little has changed since last June’s election. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour is remaining steady on 40% while the Conservatives are hanging in at roughly the same level of support. Even one year ago, such a scenario would have been deemed frankly ludicrous and is unlikely to change until the local election campaign begins ahead of May’s elections.

As for the Brexit figures, the numbers from BMG demonstrate the government’s lack of clarity in terms of its post Brexit vision. The clock is ticking on Brexit negotiations, yet we are still nowhere nearer to having a crystal-clear idea about what Brexit will look like.