Scottish independence poll: 57% No, 43% Yes

A new YouGov/Times poll puts support for Scottish independence at just 43% once non-voters and "don't know"s are removed.

The poll, conducted between the 12th and 16th January, found that almost 60% of Scots back the union once don't knows are removed. This includes 17% of respondents who backed independence in 2014.

When "don't know"s are included, 50% said no, 37% said yes, 10% said they did not know and 4% said they would not vote.

Compared to a similar poll conducted by YouGov in October, support for the union has remained steady while the share of those backing Scottish independence has declined.

The poll also asked voters for their voting intentions at Westminster and Holyrood, and found that the while the SNP remain Scotland's most popular party, support for the other parties has risen in the past year.

In a new Westminster election, 36% of respondents said they would back the SNP, while 23% said the Conservatives, 28% Labour and 6% the Liberal Democrats. Since October, SNP support has fallen by four percentage points.

This is good news for Scottish Labour who came third in last year's general election behind the SNP and the Conservatives.

As for Holyrood constituency voting intentions, the poll places SNP support at 38% (down four points again) while also putting the Conservatives on 26%, Labour on 23% and the Liberal Democrats on 7%. Furthermore, for Holyrood list voting intentions, the poll found that 32% would back the SNP, 25% the Conservatives, 22% Labour, 10% the Greens and 7% the Liberal Democrats.


The poll comes following Nicola Sturgeon's remarks that she would decide on a new independence referendum by the end of 2018 when appearing on the BBC's Andrew Marr.

The findings reiterate strong support for the union in Scotland, as well as significant support for the country's pro-union parties. However, the SNP remain the largest party and the Scottish Greens get the backing of one in ten for Holyrood voting intentions, indicating that the SNP should not be underestimated by the unionist parties.

Furthermore, in the fast-moving world of British politics, events can reshape situations. Support for independence may have stagnated and support for the SNP may be in decline, but anything could happen in the coming years, especially as the reality of Brexit Britain becomes clearer.

The full results of the poll can be accessed here.