America’s 45th president has had a controversial first year in office. Will his term end early?
Donald Trump’s presidency so far has been unique. This is one way of describing the president’s first year in office that is surely agreed upon by both Republicans and Democrats, as well as both Americans and citizens of the rest of the world.
Highlights of the president’s first year include late night controversial tweets, failed attempts to repeal Obamacare, the securing of a landmark tax deal, trading blows with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and an array of insults directed at a multiplicity of groups.
The question: having survived one year in power, can 45 survive the next three?
Betting company Ladbrokes offer odds of 8/11 for the US president not to serve a first full time (from 17th January). Additionally, the odds of 11/10 are offered for Trump to leave office via impeachment or resignation before the end of his first term in power.
Furthermore, the odds of Trump being replaced in 2021 (the year he will finish his first term) are evens. The odds of him leaving in 2018 are 3/1, as well as 5/1 for 2019 and 25/1 for 2020. The odds of him leaving in 2025 (the year he would leave after two full terms in power) are 6/1.
The three main ways Trump could leave power before 2021 are impeachment, resignation and death.
There have been a number of attempts to work towards impeaching the president, but none of made significant progress. If it has not happened so far, what would it take for impeachment proceedings to actually begin?
As for resignation, it’s difficult to see the US president resigning unless it was to avoid being impeached.
As for the third option, the US president is 71-year-olds and allegedly has a poor diet. Such an outcome is not improbable.
We can’t know how Trump’s presidency will end, but when it does, this past year shows that he could leave office kicking and screaming. Most likely on Twitter.