The odds of the prime minister leaving office in 2018 are 11/10.
Theresa May sealed her fate in April earlier this year. In a move that shocked the Great British public, the Conservative leader called for a new general election just two years after her predecessor David Cameron secured the first Tory majority since John Major in 1992.
The move could have paid off and led to a significantly bolstered majority, but the decision resulted in failure and led to the creation of a prime minister in all but name. If recent Brexit events are anything to go by, the DUP are the ones in power.
The fact the prime minister has held on for so long since losing her majority indicates a willingness to keep her until the UK is outside the European Union. However, the fact that her weakened status has been amplified in recent weeks suggests that her end could be much sooner than 2019.
The recent halt in the Brexit talks resultant of the DUP has severely weakened the prime minister, as reported by the BBC. According to the Mirror, there is a “plot to oust” the embattled PM, while the Independent has speculated that the end of Theresa May’s reign could be just around the corner.
If the betting markets – often cited as being more reliable than the polls – are to be believed, Theresa May’s time could be on course for an end in the coming months. Ladbrokes offer odds of 16/1 for a 2017 departure (as of 7th December). As Theresa May would only probably step down officially following the selection of a new leader, this option is almost impossible as 2017 comes to an end. However, the firm offers odds of 11/8 for a 2018 end to her premiership, placing this as the favourite option.
The company also offers odds of 2/1 for a 2019 Thexit, which is possible if the prime minister manages to handle Brexit reasonably well, and 7/2 for 2020, a scenario, which seems incredibly unlikely – whatever May says.
Clearly, Theresa May's future is a question of months. Not years.