America’s president the furthest from winning a second term he has been in the past year.
1. President Unpopular
Compared to former US presidents at this stage in their respective terms, Donald Trump is the least popular president since regular approval ratings began, according to data from FiveThirtyEight. That’s right, when compared with the previous twelve presidents, America’s present commander-in-chief currently has the lowest net approval ratings at this stage in a presidency since 1945.
To make matters worse for the incumbent president, this has consistently been the case during his entire ten months in office.
2. The Democrats are gaining in elections
At the beginning of November, the Democrats’ Ralph Northam won the Virginia governorship, increasing his party’s share of the vote from 47.8% to 53.9%. According to the Guardian, the state-vote was a “bellwether” race, and therefore shows that the Democrats are making significant electoral advances.
3. And the polls…
In addition to that, the Democrats are on track to win back the House of Representatives and maybe even the senate. If the Democrats were to do just that in the mid-term elections next year, the party would be able to weaken much of Trump’s agenda, putting them in a strong position for 2020. According to data gathered by FiveThirtyEight, the Democrats have been consistently leading the Republicans in generic congressional vote polls for months.
Polls do not predict the future, but they indicate that momentum is with America’s Democratic party.
4. The Democrats have great candidates
Ahead of the 2016 nomination process, Hillary Clinton looked like a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, and for all intents and purposes was the de facto nominee. She faced a strong challenge from Bernie Sanders, but overall, she remained dominant throughout the campaign. This time around, however, the Democrats have plenty of candidates who would be more than capable of taking on Donald Trump in 2020. A civil and competitive primary involving rising stars such as Kamala Harris, and strong progressives like Elizabeth Warren will prepare the eventual nominee for the battle ahead.
The Democrats have an excellent shot at picking someone to effectively challenge Donald Trump.
5. The Republicans could remove him from the ticket
Taking Trump’s name off the 2020 Republican ticket would be an unprecedented move in modern times, but it could happen. If the party performs poorly in 2018, and moderate Republicans rally around a unity figure within the party, Trump could face a challenge in the primary, and eventually be removed from the picture.
This still seems unlikely, but it is more probable than at any other time in modern American political history.
6. Falling support
At this stage, it seems that anything Donald Trump does is unsurprising, yet his recent retweets of videos posted by the deputy leader of far-right organisation Britain First shocked much of the world - particularly those in the UK. At present, there are still more than three years of President Donald Trump meaning three more years of incidents like this. There will always likely be a core base of Trump-supporters who will stay loyal so long as he keeps singing the same political tune, but the question is how big his is core base? Certainly not the 46.1% of Americans that voted for him.
Three more years of Trump will only weaken those supporters who reluctantly cast their votes for him. Many soft 2016 Trump supporters could end up staying at home come 2020.
It’s possible that before 2020, Donald Trump is impeached and removed from office, something that would certainly stop him from winning in three years time. According to the Independent, an impeachment vote could take place as early as next week.
The odds are clearly stacked against Donald Trump, but that was the case when he ran to be the Republican nominee and when he faced Hillary Clinton in the general. Trump's chances of winning a second term look slim, but in the new Trumpian normal, anything is possible and a 2020 win should not be ruled out.