According to Spiegel, the latest SPON/Civey poll puts the CDU/CSU alliance on 29.2% of the vote. This record of polls suggests that the last time Merkel's centre-right group fell below 30% was in 2010 – a staggering seven years ago.
In September’s election, the grouping won 32.9% of the vote, and have been seeking a coalition with the pro-market FDP and the Greens. However, the BBC has reported that following collapsing coalition discussions, the German leader would prefer a “new vote” to forming a minority administration. Although Bloomberg has since reported that the SPD are willing to discuss alternative options with Merkel's alliance.
In the election two month's ago, the SPD came second and the far-right Afd came third.
The decline of Merkel has been predicted for years, but post-election polls have placed her party on the low thirties. This new 29.2% poll could be a blip, or it could be the start of an either further decline.
A new election could be the last thing Merkel needs. In addition to the damning numbers for the CDU/CSU, the poll indicates that the FDP are the main beneficiaries of her party's decline, with the poll putting them on 13.2%.
As for the SPD, a new election might not benefit them, as the new poll places them on 19.5% of the vote, a very low score for Germany’s second party.
Germany’s main parties have some tough choices to make in the next few months. A new election could result in very similar results but with an even weaker CDU/CSU.
Perhaps the SPD should reconsider their options and form another grand coalition.
If not, this could be the end of Angela Merkel and the end of relative stability in Europe’s strongest nation.