Labour down four points in new poll but still ahead of the Conservatives

Jeremy Corbyn Smile

A new Ipsos MORI poll suggests that support for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party has shrunk by four whole percentage points.

The new poll, released on Friday and conducted 27th October to 1st November, puts Labour on 40%, down four points compared to the previous Ipsos MORI poll, as reported by Britain Elects.

It also puts the Conservatives on 38% (down two percentage points) and the Liberal Democrats on 9% (the same as before).

The main beneficiaries of the slight decline in support for the country’s main two parties are UKIP and the Green’s. Henry Bolton’s party were put on 4% in the latest poll (up two percentage points).

The poll also asked voters about how well they think Prime Minister Theresa May is handling the UK’s exit from the European Union. 32% said they think she is doing a good job well behind the 55% who think she is doing a bad job.

To put this into context, in December 2016, 51% thought she was doing a good job compared to the 35% who thought she was doing a bad job.

Theresa May Smiling

Analysis:

The two main parties have consistently polled well since June’s election. Other polls suggest continued two party dominance, but only time will tell to see if this is an outlier or the start of a change to pre-2017 norms.

Also, it is worth noting that while this poll was conducted during some of the recent sexual misconduct allegations, it was conducted before allegations involving former Defence Secretary Michael Fallon and Leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom, as reported by the BBC, as well as the suspension of Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins. The series of allegations are clearly a developing story so it is unclear how the allegations could affect polling numbers.