Top 7 Conservatives who could replace May – will it be Boris?

Boris Johnson on campaign

With leadership challenge talk re-emerging, take a look at the bookmakers' seven favourite replacements for the PM.

With Grant Shapps openly calling on May to be challenged for her job, as reported by the BBC, who could replace her?

7th – Damian Green

Green is probably one of the lesser-known members of the cabinet, but he is Britain’s deputy prime minister in all but name, due to his role as first secretary of state. Green is widely seen as one of May’s closest allies, so while he could gather support if his prime minister steps down, he may struggle to shake of the image that his leadership is a break from the May-era.

According to Oddschecker, PaddyPower offer odds of 20/1 for a Green premiership, and Coral offer odds of 25/1.

6th – Ruth Davidson

If May steps down – or is pushed – in the coming years, Davidson’s chances of taking her job are next to nil. In order to stand for the party’s leadership, one must be a Conservative MP, something which Davidson is not. The fact she likely has her eyes set on Bute House rather than Number 10 is another big obstacle in her way. Nonetheless, she is seen as someone who could go for the top job. However, it’s probably more of a case of later rather than sooner.

Ladbrokes offer odds of 16/1 while William Hill provide odds of 14/1 for Davidson to succeed May as Tory leader.

Ruth Davidson MSP with GALVmed's Senior Director of R&D

5th – Philip Hammond

For those looking for a transitional leader, Hammond could be their man. He could win a decent level of support amongst MPs, but he would likely have a lot of trouble getting support from the membership. A recent YouGov poll found that just 18% of Tory members think Hammond wants the UK to leave the EU. For Hammond, chancellor the exchequer is probably the most important job he will ever get in British politics.

BetFred: 14/1, Coral: 10/1.

Philip Hammond on Stage

4th – Amber Rudd

Rudd is one of the fastest rising stars in the Conservative Party, having only been first elected in 2010 she soon rose to the position of home secretary in 2016. However, there are two things that could make her ascent to the top difficult. Firstly, she is a close ally of Theresa May, something which could put off MPs and members wanting a break from the past. Secondly, like Hammond, very few members think she actually wants the UK to leave the EU (22% in the same YouGov poll).

William Hill: 7/1, Coral: 10/1.

Amber Rudd

3rd – Jacob Rees-Mogg

Over the summer, so-called Moggmentum surged amongst young Tory supporters, and the odds of Rees-Mogg taking over from May were slashed. It’s very difficult to imagine this out-of-touch figure becoming prime minister, but he is somehow the bookies’ third favourite to become the next Conservative leader.

Ladbrokes: 7/1, PaddyPower: 7/1.

Jacob Rees Mogg Headshot

2nd – David Davis

The Brexit secretary is currently the third favourite Conservative to take over from Theresa May. He has stood for leader before, losing to his name-sake Cameron in 2005, showing that he certainly has the ambition to lead his party.

William Hill: 6/1, PaddyPower: 15/2.

1st – Boris Johnson

Like after Cameron’s resignation, Boris is currently the favourite to lead the Conservatives once May steps down. A recent YouGov poll suggests that Johnson could beat Amber Rudd if the pair each reached the final round. The same was found for a Johnson versus Davis line-up.

Could it be a case of second time lucky for Boris Johnson? Or has that ship sailed?

Boris Johnson Business Speech

All odds can be accessed here on Oddschecker. All odds are accurate as of 6th October 2017.